Comment

During the course of the last one year, ever since the depredations of the Islamic terrorists started hurting Pakistan viscerally in its main cities, the Indian media has been frequently posing the question about Pakistan becoming a failed state. Insteadof sneering at Pakistan’s predicament, we should perhaps be asking ourselves: “Are we going the Pakistan way?”

How are we different? They have the Taliban rampaging in the Northwest, forcing an extremist ideology on the hapless locals, blowing up schools and police stations, beheadingor shooting in cold blood those whom they suspect as government spies, extractingprotection money from thebetter off in the local communities and, of course, not permitting the State writ to run in the conclavesthey control. In India we have the Maoists behaving in exactly the same manner in a south-north belt of 200 districts that they infest among the states in the Eastern region. And the writ of the respective state governments does not run in a large number of these districts.

InPakistan, the Balochistan province to the west has had a continuous insurgency going against thefederal government ever since the reigning monarch there acceded to Pakistan in 1948. There have been four major confrontations with the Pakistan government forces since then, accusations ofbrutal suppression of Baloch national aspirations still flow thick and fast and the cry for autonomy still resounds stronglyin that province. Does all this remind you of the happenings in a particular state in Northwest India? In fact, while Pakistan is fighting insurgency only in its western borders, we have been battling insurgency since Independence both in the Northwest as well as the Northeast.

Balochistan is mineral rich (natural gas, copper, gold, uranium) and its people are dirt poor. Part of the anger against the Centre stems from the resentment that the minerals are being exploited by the federal government but the locals do not benefit. Orissa in eastern India mirrors that profile, with the Maoists establishing themselves in the hinterland by capitalising on tribal resentment against the establishment of mineral-based industries which do not benefit them.

Pakistan is derided as a bankrupt nation surviving on the oxygen of US and Saudi money. India’s economy is apparently much stronger with the second highest GDP growth rate in the world and a comfortable foreign exchange position. But, analyse the situation a bit more deeply and what do you have? Fiscal deficitthat may cross 10% of GDP, inflation that is hitting 15% for the bare necessities, a ballooning population half of which are barely surviving, falling forex reserves for the past one year and massive unemployment among the youth which could trigger urban anarchy.

Pakistan is facing implosion due to the deepschisms in its society: Shia and Sunni, Mohajir and Punjabi, Baloch and Pashtun, army and politicians, conservatives and moderates. Yet, when it comes to the number and variety offractures in society, Pakistan is not a patch onIndia. We have religious, lingual, class, caste, regional and political. Of course, our trump card is that we have been a stable democracy, whereas Pakistan has frequently alternated between civilian and military rule. This has led to a stronger civil society in our case and hence, more stability.

However, there is the growing incidence of criminals getting elected to our legislatures; the increasing accretion of political power in the hands of a handful of families leading to the pre-Independence situation when India was largely ruled by a few hundred royal families; the rise of rampant corruption; and the increasing exploitation of socially divisive issues among our politicians to gain power.

The cynic may as well ruefully say, “With such politicians, does the country need terrorists and insurgents to tear it apart?”