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ShareThe sorry spectacle of the Congress and its coalition partner the NCP squabbling for seats reminds us of the arguments between the Congress and its allies after the Lok Sabha elections in May. Then it was the DMK which was upset over the portfolios it was allotted. Now it is the NCP.
The relationship between the Congress and the NCP in Maharashtra has been tough, but somehow they managed to last 10 years so one would have thought that both sides knew each other well and government formation would be a smooth affair. Instead, both are digging their heels in over the number and the type of ministries that each will get.
An additional wild card in the confusion is Ajit Pawar who is blowing hot and cold over his own status within the NCP. Conspiracy theories naturally abound about his erratic behaviour, and one of them is that all this drama is being manipulated behind the scenes by the canny Sharad Pawar who wants to let the Congress know he has other options. At any time such diabolical moves from the Maratha chieftain would be par for the course, but this time round such suspicions may be off the mark.
What is more plausible is that nephew Pawar himself is raising a banner of revolt against uncle Pawar. Ajit has been chafing ever since the emergence in politics of Sharad Pawar's daughter Supriya Sule, reading correctly that his pre-eminence in the party is in danger. Hence his public postures that he has had offers from the Shiv Sena and BJP to form the government if he can bring over sufficient MLAs with him. (Interesting coincidence --that is exactly what Sharad Pawar did in 1978 when he walked out of the government and joined hands with the Janata Party.)
Nor is Ajit Pawar alone in pondering over his long-term prospects; many others in the NCP feel they would be better off in the Congress. Some want both parties to eventually merge while others are ready to jump ship right now. They question the logic of the NCP as a separate party. But if and when this happens, NCP bigwigs may become bit players in the Congress. This worries Pawar who is charting out a smooth course for his daughter.
These complications will continue even when the government is finally formed. Ajit Pawar may have swallowed his pride for now and issued the pro-forma statements about being a loyal soldier of the NCP, but he will not stop plotting. The Congress on the other hand will be looking at possible defections from the NCP if not an actual split. And the Sena and the BJP, keen to make up for their humiliating losses, will try and bring down this government. An interesting five years lie ahead.
The NCP is just one of the many bothersome Congress allies. Consider the sulking Mamata Banerjee, a master at screwing things up as much for herself as for others. She is more interested in humiliating the CPM than in managing her ministry. Within the Cabinet, she is prepared to fight established government policy if it affects her popularity with her constituents.
But her naive and dangerous flirtation with the Maoists is treading on dangerous ground. The manner in which she tried to shield the Maoists after the hijack of the Rajdhani last week will not go down well with people since it shows a minister more obsessed with petty politics than with governance. Is it surprising that the Centre continues to back the CPM in West Bengal on this issue?
The case of the DMK, which went into tantrum mode regularly during UPA-1, is even more worrying. It has continued that tradition this time round too. It is hardly a secret that the DMK demanded and got the telecom ministry. And we have seen how the ministry has been handled. Throwing out minister Raja would be the correct thing to do, but the government has been reduced to defending him.
All this must make Sonia Gandhi think hard. She is trying to instil some systems and benchmarks in the Congress, but she has little control over her allies. Trinamool, DMK, NCP have added numbers but little else. Hardly any of their ministers have shown any great aptitude for governance. She might yearn for Lalu Prasad, impeccable ally and good minister; his own rash act in deserting the Congress cost him dearly. Even if she wants to, Gandhi cannot include him in government.
It's a strange situation for the Congress -- it has very little to worry about from the traditional opposition parties, the BJP and the Left, but its own alleged friends and partners are giving it sleepless nights. The long-term strategy therefore will have to be to become strong enough to win on its own steam. In Maharashtra it will do so by co-opting and breaking the NCP. At the national level the party is rebuilding itself brick by brick. That is how it used to be under Indira Gandhi and Rajiv. For the Congress, the next few years are about going back to the future.
