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Urban liberals in India — the species found in the media,academia, think tanks et al — have long harboured an intense dislike for the Congress party. This was not always the case. During Jawaharlal Nehru’s time, they had bought into his nation-building project, and when Indira Gandhi came, they continued to be her fellow travellers. It was only when she started showing signs of becoming independent that they moved away from her. On her part, she had no time for the urban intelligentsia and went directly to the rural voter. The parting of ways was complete.

Since then, barring a short flirtation with Rajiv Gandhi, the liberal element has always detested the Congress. This has created a real dilemma for them, because there are no other political alternatives available: the Left is always an option, but is seen as too dogmatic and the BJP is a no-no. Some saw hope in VP Singh, till he messed up things badly; others tried out the OBC parties, but then the great folk hero Lalu Prasad Yadav got hit by corruption charges and the relationship turned sour. As for Mulayam Singh, his proximity to Amar Singh has put off all but his die-hard friends.

Now, after a brief hiatus of possible flirtation with Sonia Gandhi, the liberals have found a new heroine — Mayawati. Initially, her association with the BJP, the corruption allegations against her and her attempts at glamourising herself were viewed with alarm or amusement. But her latest triumph in Uttar Pradeshhas enthralled the liberals. They are delighted that she ground all other parties into dust and emerged with a majority all her own. They see much promise in Mayawati and have already begun to talk about her as the future Prime Minister of India.

A Dalit as a Prime Minister? It shows how far as a nation we have come that we should be prepared to even consider it. It is also a notion that would delight all bleeding heart liberals. But is it feasible, especially in the near future? Common sense and a fair assessment of the political scene would suggest that at least for the moment it is a far-fetched idea.

The Bahujan Samaj Party, though it has grown in size and influence, has only limited support outside of UP. Punjab, Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra are states where it has some followers, but so far, this has not translated into any major presence on the national scale. With just 15 MPs, the party has a long way to go before it can boast of national level clout.

Secondly, the party still has not been able to demonstrate a strong second and third tier of leadership. When the organisation was being built up, Kanshi Ram was ably backed by a young Mayawati on the rise. On her part, she has good advisers, but none of them count for much politically even in UP, leave alone beyond its borders. She is the face and the spirit of the BSP and has led from the front. To truly be seen as an organisation worthy of becoming a national player, the BSP will have to develop a pool of talent and leadership that can provide much-needed depth.

Third, though much has been made of the smart multi-caste coalition she built up during the recent elections, the fact is that the longevity of this formula has not yet been tried and tested. The upper castes and Muslims who came forward and invested in her will want their own pound of flesh. How they will co-exist with the Dalits and how the Dalits will view the invasion of their space has yet to be seen. A party sworn to uphold the interests of one section of the population cannot be seen to be pandering to the needs of another, especially if the latter has all along been portrayed as their oppressor. This will be Mayawati’s toughest task.

Most of all, she still has to deliver good governance to Uttar Pradesh. Her past record does not inspire much confidence; her administration came to be associated with corruption and drift. Plus she got stuck with the tag of pushing a casteist agenda. This time round she will have to demonstrate an ability to govern if she wants to carry forward the momentum of her victory.

Observers have pointed out that the BSP has got “Congressised”, by becoming a broad umbrella organisation that supports all kinds of aspirations and it could conceivably export this formula to other states. This way, it could pick up support from a disparate group of castes and communities. But those were different times, when there were no regional parties.

In the era of coalition politics, anything is possible. Who would have imagined that HD Deve Gowda or IK Gujral would become Prime Minister one day? Unlike say Gujral, Mayawati at least has massive ground level support and this constituency could one day propel her to the highest post. That will be indeed a celebration of Indian diversity and democracy. But, it’s still a long way to that goal, notwithstanding the fantasising liberals.

Email: sidharth01@dnaindia.net