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DMK boss M Karunanidhi has finally spoken. In five or six days, he thundered in Chennai on Friday, his party will take a decision on the future of its alliance with the PMK. The ground is shifting again in Tamil Nadu and the UPA’s southern flank threatens to unravel in the nastiest possible way. It’s Sonia Gandhi’s midsummer nightmare. One wrong move, like Narasimha Rao’s before the 1996 elections or the BJP’s before the 2004 polls, and the Congress could find itself on the wrong side of history in 2009. In metro drawing rooms, the PMK and the Ramadoss father-and-son duo that run it are synonymous with upper caste gripes about OBC reservations and opportunistic politics. But in Tamil Nadu, the PMK’s Vanniyar caste base has emerged as a powerful voting bloc that can decisively shape the outcome of an election. By moving from one Dravidian party to the other, from one national alliance to another, the PMK has managed to play kingmaker in every poll since 1998 and monopolised the health portfolio for a decade.

The drama is just starting in Tamil Nadu and funnily enough, it’s unfolding over weddings. Karnunanidhi talked about heading for splitsville after a marriage function in Chennai last week. Strange as it may seem, DMK hotheads used the happy occasion to show him a CD recording of a vituperative speech by PMK leader J Guru in which he is supposed to have threatened to kill all DMK men. In Tamil Nadu, that’s common political rhetoric but Karunanidhi has chosen to make it the breaking point in his already strained relationship with PMK chief S Ramadoss. While Karunanidhi is weighing options, Ramadoss has revived contact with AIADMK chief Jayalalithaa. At another marriage in Chennai recently, he was seen chatting up her MLAs. But the big move is coming up. PMK leader G K Mani, is expected to travel to Jaya’s Ooty villa soon to personally hand over an invitation to his daughter’s forthcoming wedding. The occasion will provide a platform for Ramadoss and Jayalalithaa to meet for the first time since they parted ways after a quarrel in 2001. The uncertainties of a fragmented Lok Sabha seem to be pushing sworn enemies to talk peace. Two weeks ago, it was Mayawati and Mulayam Singh Yadav in UP. Now, it’s Jaya and Ramadoss in TN.

The explosive Tamil scenario presents Sonia Gandhi her toughest challenge yet as she weighs the options before her. She could step in to keep her flock together so that the DMK-PMK-Congress-Left alliance faces the upcoming parliamentary elections as a united front. Her senior advisors have told her that it’s an unbeatable arithmetic. On the other hand, Tamil Congress leaders, and they include P Chidambaram who hopes to become chief minister one day, dream of a Congress revival.

They are pushing for a Congress-PMK tie-up that would rope in other small parties to fight the anti-incumbency factor that seems to be building up against the DMK government. There is a third option, to have an alliance with Jayalalithaa. The AIADMK is very keen and has been sending desperate feelers to the Congress but Sonia is reserving opinion on that one. There was a time when the road to Raisina Hill ran through UP. But the power balance has shifted down south since the nineties. Narasimha Rao lost the 1996 polls because he chose the wrong ally in Tamil Nadu. The NDA was swept out in 2004, again because the BJP opted for the unpopular Dravidian party. Now, Sonia has to decide. Her decision could make or break the UPA in its bid to come back for a second term in 2009.

Email: a_jerath@dnaindia.net