Tiger tales

Who will win the battle for Maharashtra next month? My best guess is that the Shiv Sena-BJP combine could win - or come close to it. Most elections are fought on the basis of several issues, but it is usually one factor that proves decisive.

In the recent Lok Sabha poll, the Congress-NCP combine won because of the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena’s spoiler role. Moreover, the electorate sensed that the UPA had broadly delivered on its aam aadmi rhetoric, while the BJP was focused on the wrong issues and was led by someone who could not assert himself within his own party.

If the Lok Sabha pattern repeats itself, the Congress-NCP combine should be home and dry comfortably. But it probably won’t. The electorate no longer votes the same way in state and central elections. This was amply demonstrated earlier this month when the BJP won its bypolls in Gujarat and Uttarakhand (after faring poorly in the Lok Sabha elections) and Mayawati rolled back the Congress wave in Uttar Pradesh. We may see the same in Maharashtra, when the electorate focuses on state-level factors this time.

Prima facie, there is no good reason for Maharashtra’s 7.5 crore voters to return the Democratic Front to power. In the last 10 years, it has been a complete non-performer. No state government in recent years has had such a disgraceful record on so many fronts: the farm economy, infrastructure, power, civic governance, and law and order. Two DGPs are fighting a behind-the-scenes battle for the top job, and police reform is a far cry despite all the posturing after 26/11.

With urban seats gaining in importance this time after the delimitation of constituencies, the Sena-BJP combine should thus have a decisive edge. However, citizens do not vote only on rational economic considerations. If they did, they should have voted the DF out in 2004 itself. They had another chance in the last Lok Sabha election and still failed to turf the DF out. So why should it be different this time?

The answer depends on two people: Bal Thackeray and his nephew Raj. This is probably senior Thackeray’s last electoral battle, and it is highly unlikely that the Marathi manoos will forget that. As the first man to articulate the concerns of the sons of the soil, Thackeray is special.

This is not to deny the dent in the Sena vote brought on by the split between Uddhav and Raj. But, I suspect, this is not the issue on which the electorate wants to vote yet. This election could be about the Marathi manoos paying his debt to the man who started it all, and Raj Thackeray may not sway voters as much as he did in the Lok Sabha elections. When it comes to the crunch —  voting for the original tiger or his impatient cub — the choice is clear.

Looking at the battle from afar, it seems that Uddhav is playing his cards right. He has sewed up the alliance with BJP without much fanfare; he has raised the right issues in rural Maharashtra; and he has also chosen to use Bal Thackeray as his trump card in urban Maharashtra.

At the first rally held in Vikhroli, a Mumbai suburb, soon after the ticket distribution was finalised, Uddhav told his supporters that the only rally his father would attend was the victory rally, after the Sena-BJP is elected. The tiger cub is telling sainiks and the Marathi manoos that if you love Balasaheb, this is the time to prove it.

Given the huge ruckus over the distribution of tickets in the Sena-BJP camp, the issues may be more complex than that. There will be many rebels, and they could cut into potentially winning votes in the saffron camp. But then, the same could be true in the Congress-NCP camp, where Sharad Pawar would like to see the Congress humbled in some regions. Then we have the unknowns — the BSP and the third front, which includes the Republican Party, the Left and the Samajwadi Party. Put together, it is a pretty confused picture. No one knows who will cut into whose vote.

Where there is confusion, the voter looks for clarity. The really big question is about Raj Thackeray. Will his MNS eat into Sena-BJP votes the way it did in the Lok Sabha elections? The answer to this will decide whether the combine will win or lose. My personal hunch is that the Raj vs Uddhav battle is not happening this time; it will happen only after the election. Uddhav has pitched this battle as Bal Thackeray vs Raj and the rest, and in this battle it is not certain that Raj will have the upper hand.

On balance, this election is the Sena-BJP’s to lose. Unlike the MNS, it is a serious
contender for power, and has a strong anti-incumbency vote to harvest. If it doesn’t goof up somewhere, it has a clear chance this time.