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ShareIt is one of the popular givens of Indian politics that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has the support of the Indian middle class. In election after election, middle-class voters in the big cities and small towns, especially in west, central and north India have backed the party wholeheartedly in the last two decades or so.
India is now one-third urban and growing, and the middle class, once a small number, can have a decisive voice in the final result.
Conversely, the Congress is seen as a party that gets the poor vote and has alienated the middle classes, which at one time were its mainstay. In 1984, they bought into Rajiv Gandhi in a big way, but in the next elections, they lost faith in him and in his party, turning comfortably towards the BJP. They bought the BJP argument that the Congress pandered to the minorities.
Left-oriented pundits, who have a strong voice in the media, pointed out how anti-minority sentiments were openly
expressed in metropolitan drawing rooms from the late 1980s onwards and it appeared that the secularist certitudes that had guided this country since Independence had been casually cast aside. By 1992, when the Babri Masjid came down these new attitudes were even more hardened and in 1998, the BJP, the party that had won just 2 seats in 1984, formed the Union government for the first time. This would not have been possible without the backing of the middle classes.
The anti-secularism argument cannot explain it all -- it is a bit too glib and easy. Disappointment with the Congress was certainly one factor. Rajiv Gandhi was dead and his dream of providing an honest and forward-looking government had also died. Narasimha Rao had held his government together and had opened up the economy, but he did not inspire much confidence. He was sleeping when the Masjid was brought down and after the first two budgets, had nothing new to offer. The two interim experiments, cobbled together by the usual regional suspects had turned out to be disasters. Why not give the BJP a chance?
The six years of BJP rule were when the neo-middle classes found a voice. The celebration of every achievement as a major nationalist victory, the sabre-rattling with their neighbours, followed by an actual war and the general air of triumphalism appealed to many people. Television brought slick BJP spokespersons into urban drawing rooms where they were welcomed. Atal Bihari Vajpayee became a youth icon. The BJP was suddenly cool.
What did the Congress have to offer then? A novice, fumbling widow, with nothing but a famous surname, once again perpetuating the hated dynasty and still talking of outdated concepts like 'aam aadmi' at a time when we should have been looking to become world powers. Get out of the socialist mindset already, you could almost hear them thinking.
The Shining India campaign was aimed at the middle class, but as we all know, it flopped miserably. The Congress came back to power and today, three years later, incredibly, it is the darling of those self-same middle classes. The BJP, on the other hand, looks like a bunch of losers fighting among themselves and trying to find direction. They are more to be pitied than voted for. What happened?
Ask the Left-oriented commentators and once again they will have a quick answer -- the urban middle-classes today are now
besotted with the US and since the Congress has 'sold out' to the US, it suits them to back the party. That, once again, is too simplistic, because the BJP isn't anti-US. Besides, no matter what the Left and its fellow travellers think, there is still residual suspicion about the US among Indians.
It would be more educative to look at the middle class for answers. In general, the bourgeoisie has few convictions and is ready to go along with the prevailing mood. It perhaps harbours a bit of communalism, but can be secular too. But these considerations don't weigh too much in the final analysis. What any middle class wants most of all is stability, which usually comes from backing the status quo rather than change and upheaval.
Under the UPA government, in the last three years, the economy has done well, investment has flowed in, the stock markets have boomed, jobs can be had for the asking. Along with that, there is peace on Indian borders with no worries of a sudden
escalation of tension. True, there are terrorist attacks and the Congress can be too "soft" on the minorities, but terrorism is now a part of life everywhere.
The great team at the top -- Sonia Gandhi and Manmohan Singh -- who have remained together for three long years have managed the country well. Why then disturb this blissful state of being? Who knows what change will bring? The middle classes have made up their minds -- they are going to back this team once again.
Email: sidharth01@dnaindia.net
