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IIt is almost comically laughable that Sharad Pawar could not make it to a Third Front rally in Bhubaneswar because of a technical snag in his aircraft. This is the man whose party colleague holds the civil aviation ministry; in addition, he has many powerful industrialist friends. He could have got a substitute plane in a jiffy.

It is not difficult to imagine what the real reason for his no-show could be. Once the Congress made it clear that it was annoyed at his plans to appear on the same platform as its bitter opponents, Pawar, after first deciding to defiantly go, chickened out. The rally was to be a stridently anti-Congress affair; he is in an alliance with the Congress in Maharashtra not only for these elections but also in the state government. You don’t run with the hares and hunt with the hounds.

But in fact that is what Pawar has done, or tried to do, sometimes successfully sometimes not, for most of his political life. Before going back in history, just look at the current election scene; even while being part of the UPA and the state government, he has flirted (seriously) with the Shiv Sena, hobnobbed with the Third Fronters and kept his options open with the Congress in whose arms he went back once he got his way with the seat sharing in Maharashtra. That should have been that, but not for Pawar.

While constantly giving ambiguous statements about his support for Manmohan Singh as the UPA’scandidate for PM, he let it be known that he was not averse to being part of the Third Front and had the Congress not put its foot down, would have happily gone to Bhubaneswar.

It is not just that his going there would displease the Congress. The mood of the rally was also bitterly anti-BJP. Had Pawar gone there, he would have had to necessarily make some token anti-communal party statements. How would the Shiv Sena have taken that? The Sena is important because in the event of Pawar finally throwing his hat in the ring for the PM’s job after the poll results come in, he will need the Sena’s support. It wouldn’t do to annoy them beyond a point. See the pattern?

It is said that Sharad Pawar is a politician who has good friends all across the political spectrum. This has always been so. From his days as a young minister in the Congress government of Vasantdada Patil in Maharashtra, Pawar was much admired not only by his chief minister and several other senior Congressmen but also by opposition leaders. That helped him the day, in 1978, without due notice, he defected from the Congress and with the help of the Janata Party formed the Progressive Democratic Front (PDF) government. Every constituent of the Janata Party — the Jan Sanghis and the socialists included endorsed the 38-year-old politician as their chief ministerial candidate.

Over the years Pawar has built up a strong network of political and other friends, who find him smart, progressive and efficient. His bureaucrats admired and respected him and his workers adore him. His constituents love him for the work he has done in Baramati. Though there have been rumours of scandals around him (land-related, mainly), no mud has stuck — he is India’s leading Teflon politician. Many of his political friends can be counted upon to support him should he make a pitch for the top job.

TheSena has endorsed him as a Maharashtrian candidate. The Samajwadi Party has made some bland commitments too. But realistically speaking, what are his chances?
As has now become almost axiomatic, most analyses say that the two large parties, the Congress and the BJP between them will not get a total of 272 seats, leaving the Third Front to cobble together some kind of majority to form a government. But without the support of a big party, as the main partner or from outside, no coalition will survive.

Thus the Congress or the BJP’s backing will be critical for whoever hopes to become the prime minister from among the other regional parties. The Congress will never — emphasis on never — back Pawar. No matter what their coalition arrangements, the Congress does not trust Pawar and he knows that. Thus he has to be on friendly terms with the BJP.

While we in Maharashtra see the hyping up of Pawar, there are many other, stronger claimants to the job out there, who will bring more MPs and perhaps more support from others too. They enjoy more clout and more trust too. The truth is that for all his friends and relationships build over the years, other parties have also begun to suspect Pawar — theywant anyone joining their cause to stand up and be counted. The now-you-see-me-now-you-don’t, artful dodger act can only work up to a point.

Most crucially, Pawar has also lost the one attribute that made him stand out in comparison to others of his generation — his risk-taking ability. When he left the Congress in 1978 and then again in 1999 he showed that he had the appetite for high-stakes gambling. After all, no one leaves the Congress and survives. But he survived and thrived. That gumption seems to be missing this time round — his one-step-forward-two-steps-backward tactic reflects that. All of which means that Pawar will remain a prime minister hopeful like many others, but once again fail to reach the summit.