Column

For a while last week it looked like the UPA government was as good as dead. When the differences between the Prime Minister and his government’s key ally, the Left parties escalated and generated into a personalised war of words, there may have been many who thought, or more accurately, hoped, that the end was nigh.

It certainly looked like it –– the gap between the two had widened beyond any hope of reconciliation, both were sniping at each other and the numbers were not in the government’s favour.

The immediate crisis seems to have passed. All indications are that while the PM and the Left are no closer to finding a workable solution, the CPM and its own leftist allies are not going to fully withdraw support.

Manmohan Singh on his part is trying his best to kiss and make up, perhaps to atone for his earlier strong remarks. Within the Left, the current thinking is that precipitating a political crisis at this time may not be good for anyone, but this still does not mean that they would support the government.

It’s like a marriage where one partner will continue sulking, but will not take the final step of walking out and starting divorce proceedings.

Meanwhile, the BJP, always ready to look for an opportunity to snipe at the government, is thrilled at the possibilities.

The last time they sniffed an opportunity to embarrass, even dislodge the government was during the presidential elections, but that fell flat when no one bought into it. Now they are even prepared to join the CPM in opposing the nuclear deal, though the latter is not biting.

But though a crisis it may be, and one that keeps politicians, fixers, journalists, analysts and TV anchors busy, any hope that this could spell the end of this government is futile and foolish.

There is no danger to the government, at least not yet. And that is not, as it may appear, because of the CPM’s generous decision to continue backing the government, but because of other, more practical reasons.

The first is that the government does not really need the CPM beyond a point –– at least not in Parliament –– in the near future.

The Indo-US nuclear deal too is not likely to come up for vote in the House, as Speaker Somnath Chatterji has made quite clear.So Manmohan Singh can continue with his minority government status.

This does not imply that the government doesn’t care if the Left is with it or not –– quite the contrary. Having the cadre-based Left parties drum up an agitation –– something they do best –– on important issues could be hugely embarrassing and inconvenient.

One strategy Singh and his team may follow is to slow down on economic reforms and push forward “populist” schemes that the Left may find it difficult to oppose –– the Independence Day speech gave some hints about that.

Secondly, no party –– not the BJP, not the Left parties and perhaps not even the Congress –– is ready for an election at this time.

The first is in a completely disarray, the second group is not sure whether it will come back with the same numbers as the last time and the Congress, though it is slowly picking up new friends, is facing problems in its own party in the states it runs, including Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra.

The so-called Third Front is getting coverage but the numbers they can muster do not add up. The best possible combination, at least on paper, is one between the Congress with its current UPA allies and Mayawati. But given how erratic Mayawati can be, the Congress cannot be overly pleased about the prospect.

The CPM knows this –– but it is in a bind. It cannot be seen to be supporting closer relations with the United States, its great ideological enemy.

Despite the differences within the party on several issues, no leader, especially among the veterans, will ever depart from the “line”, the doctrinaire ideological framework, which every apparatchik has embedded in his or her DNA. So the marriage will not fall apart, even as the CPM grates its teeth all the time and continue with this bogus marriage.

Does this mean that the crisis has passed? Hardly. For the government, and the Prime Minister personally, the Indo-US is an article of faith.

Further, any going back, even to renegotiate a point or two, will make India the laughing stock of the world, because international treaties are not to be played around in this fashion. For the Left, the deal, since it comes from the US, is completely unacceptable.

(The CPM is silent on a similar deal between the US and China.) Over the next few months, as the deal comes closer to being “operationalised” and the next steps have to be taken, the objections from the CPM will get even shriller unless the government backs down, which may not happen. That is when the real political games will begin and that is why talk of a mid-term election is already in the air.

Email: sidharth01@dnaindia.net