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Rahul (Congress) vs Varun (BJP) in 2019

Sidharth Bhatia
Sunday, April 19, 2009 3:34 IST
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Much as the Bharatiya Janata Party tries to be ambivalent towards Varun Gandhi, even dissociating from the things "he may have said, if indeed he said them", the fact is that he has become the party's newest poster boy with a following among young workers that would be the envy of many a veteran. After LK Advani, Narendra Modi, and a couple of others, he is the most recognised name and face of the party, the latest "national leader", as a so-called strategist for the party said so gushingly on television last week.

Yet, the party elders do not know what to do with him. They want his fame (or notoriety, same thing in these hypermedia times) to get them votes, but they fret about letting a member of the Nehru-Gandhi family hijack the party.

The leadership knows that the rank and file has been galvanised by his speech, but they do not want Varun to get a larger-than-life image, and certainly not with Hindutva, which they now want to play down. Governance is the new mantra, and even Narendra Modi has suitably altered his message. Varun is an inconvenient reminder of what has been brushed under the carpet.

Is it any surprise that the party's hard-core supporter is confused? To the true believers, any deviance from the cause is apostasy. They understand that the Ram Mandir could not be built due to coalition compulsions, but when the party during the election campaign refuses to touch upon the basics values, it can be upsetting.

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And then along comes this charismatic young man who does not beat about the bush. He says it like it is -- if the Muslims so much as dare look towards India, he would cut off their hands and more. This is the good stuff. He is ready to go to jail for his beliefs -- this makes him a brave man.

Not surprisingly, Varun is now in demand in every constituency. The leadership doesn't know what to do with him -- he is here to stay and for the very long term.

Varun has assured the Supreme Court that he will not make any more provocative speeches. The court need not worry -- he won't. He doesn't need to. He has made his point and got the results he was hoping for. The media has done the job for him. Playing the CD over and over again, the television channels have spread the message far and wide, turning him into a folk hero for the ordinary BJP worker and supporter. Why should he risk further legal trouble?

Hit-and-run campaigning is the name of the game. You say something outrageous and then shut up; the supporters get the message and do the rest. Raj Thackeray won't make any more fiery speeches against Uttar Bharatiyas; the courts have ordered him not to, but by the time the courts stepped in, many innocent Uttar Bharatiyas were beaten up and the Marathi manoos started looking at Raj admiringly.

The executive in Maharashtra had kept mum while Thackeray went about raising the temperature. In Varun's case the Election Commission acted quickly, but it was not until Mayawati threw him in jail under the National Security Act that the full might of the law came down upon him. The legal wrangles should keep him busy for a while, but he looks like becoming a martyr and hero and, more important, an MP.

But we need to understand, young Varun, all of 29 years old, is not merely looking for short-term gains. He will not be content just winning this election. He has his sights firmly on the future. He knows well that a) he is the lesser Gandhi and has to carve out a place in the political sun to distinguish himself from his more high-profile cousins and b) the BJP is the ideal place for him because it is a national organisation and it has no leaders in his age group.

By bursting on to the scene in such a dramatic manner, he has leap-frogged over many other BJP leaders and positioned himself as a man to watch. The BJP is now hostage to the situation -- it cannot jettison him, because he speaks their language, but that does not mean it won't be uncomfortable at the thought of him becoming a future leader of the party and, indeed, the Sangh parivar.

So we could look at a possible future scenario that goes something like this -- the Congress, headed by Rahul Gandhi, will fight the BJP, headed by his cousin Varun Gandhi.

This won't happen in 2014, but don't rule out such a scenario in 2019 or even later. Ten years from now Varun will still not be 40 years old and his cousin Rahul will be touching 50. The young voters of today would have grown along with them, and the new generation of voters who will enter the scene will be comfortable with them.

The so-called Gen Next of the BJP today -- Arun Jaitley, Sushma Swaraj, Vasundhara Raje and, indeed, Narendra Modi -- is in its mid-50s and older; where will they be in 2019? The game plan is perfect and the road for young Varun is clear.

No, Varun does not need to make another provocative speech anymore. Indeed, he has already said he won't but hasn't ruled out attacking "enemies of India". The impetuous, misguided boy is growing up fast. He can now start building himself up as a responsible, sober leader of the future.

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