Column

Meanwhile in Delhi

With the outcome of the battle for UP more or less decided, political focus is rapidly shifting to the July presidential polls. Two candidates have already emerged, Somnath Chatterjee,78, from the Left and Bhairon Singh Shekhawat, 84, from the BJP. It's a sad comment on the grand old party of Indian politics that of the three major forces, the Congress is the only one that doesn't have a nominee to offer for the highest post in the land. Lots of names are doing the rounds — Karan Singh, Pranab Mukherjee, Arjun Singh, to name a few — but none have found favour in a party with a lobster pot mentality. The only name Congress circles seem to agree on is Sushil Kumar Shinde, but for the post of vice president, not president. The shrinking self-image of the party is keeping pace with its dwindling political base.

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The presidential polls promise to be as hotly contested as the UP assembly elections. Shekhawat is all fired up for the last, and probably the biggest, battle of his career. He's been plotting his campaign for many months now, ably assisted by a core group of select Rajput MPs from his own party and the Janata Dal (U) and a couple of sympathetic journalists. While the NDA’s strength in the electoral college is less than the combined numbers of the UPA and the Left, Shekhawat is eyeing the votes of the“others”, that is, parties that do not belong to either of the two main political fronts. These include the TDP, AIADMK, SP, BSP and a host of smaller parties. He's also hopeful of netting in caste votes from Rajputs across party lines. And there are indications that the NCP may break ranks with the UPA to back him.

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While Shekhawat is gung-ho about contesting, the Left is weighing Chatterjee's chances cautiously. There are two critical factors in its calculations. One is the degree of unanimity within the UPA-Left combine. The NCP could be a weak link here. The other is the shape of the UP assembly, arguably the most influential because of its size. The Left is counting on the support of the SP, but with Mulayam Singh Yadav's political fortunes on the decline, his party may not have enough votes to help Chatterjee through, particularly if the BJP does as well as is being predicted by the exit polls. The BSP's support could be the swing factor, but given the Left's declared fondness for the SP, Chatterjee will need all the help he can muster from the Congress to win Mayawati over. Get set for new alignments and strange bedfellows. The election of the next President of India could head for a nail-biting finish, unless political parties show unexpected sagacity.

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Tailpiece

Murli Manohar Joshi is on the warpath after BJP president Rajnath Singh anointed LK Advani as the party's nominee for prime minister in the next elections. According to the BJP grapevine, Joshi telephoned Singh and gave him an earful. Who had authorised him to make such an announcement, Joshi demanded. There were sharp exchanges and both hung up fuming. Party circles are wondering what possessed Singh to rake up the succession controversy in the middle of the UP elections. Was it a case of foot-in-the-mouth disease? Or is Singh trying to mend fences with Advani to buy peace in the party?

Email: a_jerath@dnaindia.net