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ShareThe puns were not long in coming after the elections results started trickling in -- the cub mauls the tiger, new cub on the block, tiger bearded in his own den. The message was obvious. Raj Thackeray had humbled his parent party, the Shiv Sena, with his 13 elected Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) candidates.
More significantly, he affected the chances of Shiv Sena or BJP candidates in 29 constituencies. So though he has come at the tail-end of the list of winners, Raj Thackeray is the real story of these elections. But once the applause dies down and the real business of politics begins, where does he go from here? How will he build his party organisation?
Rabble-rousing, street politics and making a noise in the legislative assembly as he has promised is all very well, but if he is in it for the long-term, that will be counter-productive the next time round -- when he logically should do much better. The lust for vengeance has been satisfied, but will he be able to break the Sena? Will his party emerge as a credible alternative in the state?
Raj Thackeray could do himself a service if he ponders over the history of the Shiv Sena. It took them three decades to come to power at the state level. Despite its espousal of the son-of-the-soil, its appeal did not go beyond parts of the then Bombay and even here, not all Maharashtrians were convinced about Bal Thackeray. After the Babri Masjid demolition and the palpable anger against the Congress, Thackeray turned to Hindutva, signed up with the rising Bharatiya Janata Party and won the statein 1995.
These were four wasted years for the Sena; it just couldn't digest power. The party's cadre took it as a license to bully, the ministers were all at sea about governance and the Sena chief proudly spoke of his extra-constitutional role as a remote control, changing the chief minister half-way through. It was an object lesson in how not to govern. Since then the Sena-BJP combine has only gone downhill. In 2005, the worst in its history, two key leaders, Narayan Rane and Raj Thackeray were ousted or left the party and the effects are being felt now.
So is it the end of the road for the Shiv Sena? Not necessarily. Bal Thackeray still holds sway over his followers and the party has won 44 seats. But the Sena's greatest strength is its organisational structure. Though distinctly frayed and even damaged in parts, the network of shakhas, pramukhs, party workers is invaluable; it can be mobilised within hours at any time. It provides muscle and brings in resources. That is something that cannot be bought off the shelf. Raj Thackeray has to either build it brick by brick or he can just attempt to hijack it and take it over. That is the Bal Thackeray legacy -- the organisation along with the following -- that he will aim for.
If he is successful, it will help him achieve what will surely be his long-term goal: to emerge as a strong alternative to the Congress -- the party to beat in Maharashtra. Despite the poor performance of the Democratic Front government, the ruling coalition romped home with a better seat tally than in the last elections. The Congress may have its weaknesses, but its 82 seats put it far ahead. Yet, there is enough space for a strong rival -- who will that be.
Sharad Pawar's National Congress Party(NCP) is second but for the moment is an ally. In time, there will be a creeping merger as in dribs and drabs NCP members will drift into the Congress. That is, unlessPawar voluntarily merges with the Congress. In any case the NCP is too much like the Congress to be a real alternative.
The BJP would logically occupy that space, but is in such disarray at the national level that its state unit is thoroughly demoralised. If it doesn't chart out its own path, away from the Sena, the BJP in Maharashtra could slowly sink into oblivion. The Sena, as shown, is ripe for implosion if somebody could set off the spark. Raj Thackeray could be the person and make a serious bid for challenger, even champion.
This cannot happen immediately. The Congress will become stronger and, if the NCP merges, unassailable. The MNS could stop growing, especially if Raj Thackeray believes that his 13 seats is a mandate for creating havoc, Sena style. He will have to now become more inclusive, whether he likes it or not; that could help him attract not only Sena youths and Marathi manoos but also others. That will require recalibration of ideas, jettisoning old-style thoughts and tactics and most important, showing some imagination. Beating up people on the street ultimately has limited currency in the big-power stakes. If he doesn't change, Raj Thackeray will remain an also-ran in the state.
Email: sidharth01@dnaindia.net
