Column

It is a good time to be a Member of Parliament, more so if you belong to a small party or are an independent. You get wooed by every major political formation and this is the time to ask for anything you want. Every wild fantasy can be fulfilled and if one side demurs, why, just cross over to the other side. Always dreamt of having an airport named after your father? No problems, it will be done. Want to give a birthday present to your son by way of a cabinet post? Easy.

Even so, there is no saying what will happen on July 22. Will the government win, will the opposition groups defeat a Congress-led coalition on the floor of the house or will the UPA simply resign? The possibility of the third alternative, of Manmohan Singh making a stirring speech and then tendering his resignation has also been doing the rounds in political circles, but this will not necessarily help him or his government seize the moral high ground — it is a bit too late for that.

The bigger question is what happens after 22/7? Not merely in the immediate term, but also it is time for the next general elections, which are less than a year away. Will the current coalitions hold? Will the newly discovered friendships last? Can the big groupings keep their flock together? Here are some scenarios, with the usual caveat that in Indian politics anything and everything is possible:

The UPA: So far the coalition has held, but what happens when the smaller parties realise that the Congress has scored several self-goals and is not likely to deliver even 100 seats the next time round? Will all the allies stick around to sink in the Titanic? Some, like the PMK in Tamil Nadu have already started flirting around with other parties; others may follow, if not in the direction of the NDA then towards a third front. Sharad Pawar usually does not like to be with losing groups; he may decamp fast. Worse, some Congressmen, who have not totally bought into the nuclear deal with the same enthusiasm as the leadership could sniff at opportunities outside and quit. The main question that will preoccupy everyone’s mind will be: do Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi have the ability to pull in the votes? Going by the last few state elections, the answer is no, though general elections do not always follow the same pattern. In any case, these are rough times for the UPA and rougher still for the Congress.

The NDA: If the UPA is in trouble, it doesn’t necessarily follow that it will benefit the NDA. The main component of this alliance, the BJP, should be in top form, given that the party has won several elections in the past three years. It bucked the anti-incumbent trend in Gujarat and scooped up an excellent victory in Karnataka. It has also sorted out its leadership issue. Yet, something is not quite right.

In the entire debate on the nuclear-deal, the BJP has been left standing at the
starting post, caught like a deer in the headlights. If it had been in power, it would have accepted this deal, no questions asked. Many in the party think the deal is good for India. But it cannot be seen to be supporting it. Ironically, here too the opposition space has been cornered by the Left. The BJP therefore needs a strong plank or two to fight the UPA in the elections. Though it still has a good chance of returning to power, all the allies are still not in place and there is no saying if Jayalalithaa will join up.

The Left: It is almost certain that in the next elections the left parties (mainly the CPM) will get less seats than in the current Lok Sabha. In which case, what kind of power will they wield? As a grouping with around 40 seats, they can either be a small rump with the UPA or a part of any non-Congress, non-BJP formation. This scaling down of influence will be difficult to swallow. Also, dissent in the Left is building up and this could threaten the unity of the parties and formations.

The Third Front: This has been a constant dream of those who hate the ‘communal’ BJP and also the Congress. We have seen many such experiments but none has survived more than two years. Further, though the current crisis has breathed new life into the regional parties, without the support of any of the bigger parties outside the government, the third fronters cannot hope to get the numbers. The ambitions of the leaders of regional parties often conflict with each other, a case of too many chiefs and very few Indians. Who will be the prime minister of such a government — Jayalalithaa, Mayawati, Chandrababu Naidu or indeed, Sharad Pawar? And what will be the glue that will hold this group together?

Of course, things may turn out different, but these are reasonable prognosis. Where does that leave us? In a state of confusion messier than it is now. If no one coalition can hope to get the numbers, India could be heading for a period of political instability. What a change from just a few months ago when everything was going just right. Truly, this is Incredible India.

Email: sidharth01@dnainidia.net