Column

The elections have not yet been announced and the political formations have not even begun but there is no dearth of prime ministerial hopefuls out there, jockeying to make sure their claim is heard. No longer are politicians content to do their lobbying discreetly and behind the scenes; today’s putative prime ministers are out there in the open.

Just count the number of names one has heard of in the past few weeks as potential prime ministers: LK Advani we know of, since he is party’s proclaimed prime ministerial candidate. There is of course the small matter of winning the elections, but to his fans, those are mere details. He isdesperate to end his ‘forever the bridesmaid never the bride’ status and get the prized job this time round. During the NDA’s reign, Vajpayee’s larger than life status within the party ensured that Advani would remain number 2; now Vajpayee has retired so that leaves only him in the fray.

But hark, who are these two flies in the ointment — the octogenarian Bhairon Singh Shekawat, who every thought had doddered off into the sunset after his failed bid at becoming President, has emerged again and stories have already begun to do the rounds that he is “more acceptable” to the rest of the NDA parties than Advani. Then there is the perennial buzz around Narendra Modi who is getting ringing endorsements from captains of industry as a future PM. This can hardly have pleased Advani who is seeing the Holy Grail even more distant.

Which brings us to Modi. Like every politician Modi too wants to become the prime minister, but he goes out of his way to show he is content with Gujarat. The truth is that he does not yet have the support of his own party, let alone the rest of the NDA, which is composed of a floating population of barnacles that will attach itself to anyone who looks like attaining power. Advani may like Modi but the rest of the young turks, such as they are, don’t. Forget going abroad, where he will run into practical problems (visa issues), Modi doesn’t yet have a resonance even in many other states and without UP, where the BJP is hobbling, he cannot pull it off. The race is looking a very long one for him.

In the UPA, Pranabda, who had once thrown his hat into the ring after Indira Gandhi’s assassination is a picture of dignified moderation but his heart seethes for the job held currently by someone who was his junior as a mere RBI governor when he (Mukherjee) was the finance minister. But the current Mrs G won’t stand for it, (unless things change now for a short period) so that’s that.

But Sharad Pawar has no such compunctions — his party is already shouting from the rooftops about making him PM. Pawar has waited a long time, but again, the other UPA constituents are bound to ask, what does he have that we don’t (for the record he has just 8 MPs.)

Pawar is getting ready for the for the post-election scenario, when a hung parliament may throw up all kinds of permutations and combinations. That is when other wannabe’s will stake their claims. There will be Mayawati, the great hope of not only the Dalits but also liberal media commentators who say, “If Obama can make it, why not a Dalit”. The difference is that Obama’s message is inclusive and hers the exact opposite. Mayawati has broken off ties with everyone at some time or the other, the Left being the latest casualty of her capricious nature.

In the southern corner stands Jayalalithaa, who will be the first to trip Mayawati. The AIADMK looks set to sweep Tamil Nadu while Mayawati’s BSP is ranged against a growing coalition of rivals, including the Cong-SP combine. With the SP talking to Kalyan Singh, Mayawati has more headaches coming up.

The Samajwadi boss Mulayam Singh Yadav is also a would-be prime minister. The Congress, if it does not get as many seats as it has may decide to stay out of government and he is the person they are most likely to support. Laloo Yadav is a close second, but it will depend on who carries more clout in terms of seats.

Then one cannot forget several regional hopefuls, such as Chandrababu Naidu or the out-of-the-box names like Prakash Karat. (Whyever not? Remember the historic blunder of not letting Jyoti Basu become the PM?) And as we have seen in the past, a compromise candidate in the shape of a complete outsider can also suddenly show up — HD Deve Gowda was one such, as was IK Gujral — because the heavyweight
regional bosses cancel each other out.

But what if the Congress comes up with a better performance than its current standing? Manmohan Singh is the name that springs to mind right away, but the Gandhi family looms large in all calculations. There is Rahul, there is Priyanka and most of all, there is Sonia Gandhi herself.

It’s anybody’s game and no one party is confident at this juncture of emerging with a sizable strength in the house; the big ones all worry about getting less than they have while the regionals are hoping for sufficient strength to call the shots. The picture is far from clear at this stage, which allows everyone to dream of becoming prime minister of India in the not-too-distant future.