Email
Print
ShareWe have never been in this situation before. Just a couple of years back, in the last years of the Bush regime, it seemed as if an Indo-US geopolitical alliance was all we needed to move up to the big league. But enter Obama and all bets are off.
The US embrace is no longer as warm as we imagined it to be. Meanwhile, the India-China relationship is fraying at the edges; Pakistan is getting into a Talibanesque mess; Nepal is ambivalent, and the Maoists positively hostile to us; Sri Lanka is cocky after subduing its Tamil Tigers; and Bangladesh is unlikely to do anything to keep its people from spilling over into India or turn overtly jihadi.
In short we have no real friends anywhere -- neither in the neighbourhood nor in the wider world of power blocs. How then are we going to protect our national interests?
One thing is for sure. Lazy diplomacy is not going to help. Nor will ambivalence about defence preparedness.
We have, in the past, put too much faith in moral posturing, influenced by the likes of Nehru and Gandhi. But the emerging scenario needs a Chanakya, not woolly thinking, as every country's foreign policy is driven by realpolitik. China is bashing up Tibetans and Uighurs, but has the friendliest of relationships with Pakistan, the epicentre of jihadi terrorism.
The US is a muddled up superpower, with no idea of how to protect its long-term interests. It is backing Pakistan in the belief that it will take on the Taliban, but what if Pakistan, driven by blind hatred of India, is not up to it? What if a Talibanised Pakistan is armed to take on the US and India instead?
Russia, a defence superpower with a puny economy, kowtows to China despite being wary of its embrace. The European Union, despite its high moral tone in everything, is the meekest possible force when it comes to fighting for what it believes in. Economically, western Europe is in decline and politically it is effete.Japan is too self-absorbed with its non-performing economy to stand up for its national self-respect, whether it is against Chinese bullying or North Korean buccaneering.
In this world, the first thing we need to understand is that we are on our own. Civilisationally, as Samuel Huntington presciently predicted, we have no natural allies to call to our aid. We have to size up the world and make our moves.
As things stand now, these are the major power blocs we have to deal with: the US and north America is bloc one; China and south-east Asia constitute a rival bloc, and its power is growing; the European Union is bloc three, but it is largely protectionist and its economy is losing steam; Latin America is the rising power, and as such ripe for alignments. The west Asian economies -- largely Islamic -- constitute another node, despite apparent local rivalries and bitterness.
What we have left is the African subcontinent, Australia, Russia and Japan. Africa is ripe for big power rivalry, and the Chinese are ahead in the game. Australia is aligned to the US, but is of little practical relevance in any international power game.
That leaves Russia, Japan and India as the sole major powers with no natural allies and each with its own weaknesses to attend to.
This is the slate on which Indian diplomacy has to make its mark, and the place to begin obviously is the US, Japan and Russia -- in that order. The US is a natural partner but it believes it needs Pakistan on its side and China too. Since both of them are our enemies, Indian diplomacy has to do two opposite things: one is to patiently educate the US on the disadvantages of partnering with countries that are actually inimical to its interests; secondly, we need to resist misguided US pressure to make concessions on Kashmir. We should, of course, give the Kashmiris a large amount of autonomy, but we have to keep the Pakistanis out of there to preserve secularism.
On the assumption that our relationship with the US will not be smooth, we have to redevelop our friendship with the Russians and closer economic ties with the EU and Japan. If any country should be shown favours, it is Japan. We also need to develop Iran as a strategic partner, if only to send a message to the US that if they can jump into bed with our enemies, we can talk to Iran too.
Of course, only a militarily strong nation can maintain its independence. We must thus keep raising our defence preparedness with a step-up in defence's share of the GDP to 4-4.5 per cent for the next 10 years, till we are capable of deterring China on our own. The nuclear deterrence also needs to be beefed up and made real, with proper delivery systems.
India is not a warmongering nation, but we must learn the lesson that only those who are perpetually prepared for war can usually avoid it.
