Column

Of the several attributes assigned to the Congress party’s victory in the recent elections, analysts have come up with many theories based on caste/class/religion factors which influence politics in India, all of which have undoubted truth value. But it can be argued that the opposition, namely the BJP, had completely misread the situation.

True, modern elections are fought so much on television that cute faces and effective sound-bites have become paramount. In the recent elections, the opposition (and the BJP particularly) not only picked several wrong candidates by age, but also misunderstood the mood of the people: Those who looked right, said the wrong things; those who spoke sense, didn’t seem to look the part.

Yet these elections were not decided by television alone. There were several issues — the economy, stability, health, education and gender affairs — which seemed to bypass the BJP completely, and to its detriment, because it hinged everything on terrorism, fear and anger. The humourless ambition of many from the opposition not only cut very little ice with the people, but in fact may have put them off, especially the young voters.

In itself, terrorism is unarguably one of the biggest issues confronting the modern world. But globally today, there is a fatigue against fear and a latent disgust against paranoia, especially in the young, which is seeking solace, hope and optimism in a world full of misery.

Some idea of this was available when Narendra Modi was virtually driven out of Mumbai when he came with his largesse for police victims of 26/11. But L K Advani and his cohorts misunderstood so completely the perception about terrorism that they made it their main election plank.

The Congress benefited, willy-nilly, because it underplayed the terrorism card, playing out the stability issue through economist Manmohan Singh and the credibility factor through the Gandhi family. This seems to have hit the jackpot, not the least because the prime minister enjoys the confidence of the nation, young and old alike.

It would be naive, of course, to accept that the apparent catholicity of the Gandhis is intrinsic and necessarily faith-based. But even astuteness in political affairs demands a high degree of conviction — along with skill and patience and no overt show of greed to win the trust of the people.

Sonia Gandhi, for instance, has declined the prime minister’s position several times. Priyanka has not only stayed out of the power stakes, but also shared a woman-to-woman bonding with her father’s assassin. Rahul now insists on still serving time learning what it takes to be an MP rather than become a minister and exploit his enhanced power.

All of this evokes strong emotions and obviously helps keep their grip on the Congress — and by extension their relevance in Indian politics alive. But they have done this with such finesse that the strong emotional connect of the Indian people with the Gandhi name appears revived.

Winning the elections, however, does not mean that the Congress has completely redeemed itself. In 1999, it might be recalled, the BJP believed it had won power forever, made ‘India Shining’ its campaign plank in 2004 and came to grief because it mistook the trees for the woods. The hard work for the UPA begins now, not the least to establish stability, revive the economy and work towards genuine social re-engineering.

As for the BJP, it has some serious introspection to do. Of its three dominant faces in these elections, LK Advani is now surely retired (and hurt), Varun Gandhi may have won Pilibhit but cost his party Uttar Pradesh.

As for Narendra Modi, who was trying to bridge the gap from Gandhinagar to Delhi in melodramatic fashion, he finds himself still king, but now also hostage in Gujarat.

What next?