The other election: Uddhav Thackeray vs Raj Thackeray

So who is fighting whom in the Maharashtra elections? At war formally are the alliances of Congress-NCP and  Shiv Sena-BJP. And not so secret is also the battle between NCP’s rebels against the Congress.

But the real fight is between Raj Thackeray, 41, the firebrand chief of the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS), and Uddhav Thackeray, 49, the gentlemanly Shiv Sena leader, though neither is fully prepared to admit it. It’s the fight between the cousins that by all accounts will determine the outcome of the battle for Maharashtra.

In recent interviews to CNN-IBN and at public rallies across the state, the two scorned each other, but stopped short of admitting that the battle was personal. Raj camouflaged his anti-Sena obsession by saying: “Both Congress-NCP and BJP-Sena are the same.”

But a senior MNS leader admitted to DNA: “Raj’s strategy is aimed at ensuring that Uddhav does not consolidate himself as an unchallenged leader (of the Marathi manoos).”
The personal score-settling between the cousins has at last reached a decisive, do-or-die phase that will decide, besides their own careers, who will form the next government in the state.

Asked if the Sena’s flag would fly high after the elections, Uddhav told CNN-IBN: “Yes, absolutely. I am touring the whole of Maharashtra… Wherever I go, I see a wave.” But his concern becomes clear when he warns at public rallies: “Beware of those who have taken supari to divide the Marathi votes.” The Sena is clearly worried about retaining the Marathi vote intact in Mumbai (36 seats) and Thane (24), the two urban agglomerations that will decide who rules Mantralaya. The Mumbai Marathi vote is 26-28%, while Thane has more than 70%.

The no-holds-barred rivalry between the cousins is not new: it began when Raj left the Shiv Sena four years ago. At stake is the legacy of Shiv Sena’s mercurial founder Bal Thackeray. Uddhav wants to be political heir to his father. And Raj, son of Bal Thackeray’s brother, is hell-bent on claiming the same legacy for himself.

Uddhav wants to prove that he is the true successor to his father by getting the top job of the chief minister. Raj’s strategy is aimed at stopping precisely that from happening.
Uddhav can realise his dream only if the BJP-Sena combine gets at least 145 seats in the 288-strong assembly. Contesting 169 seats, Sena will have to win 85 to 95 seats and hope that the BJP gets 55 to 65 for Uddhav to come anywhere close to power.

The gameplan of the younger cousin, who has fielded 145 candidates, seems simpler. A close look at the seats the MNS is contesting and the candidates it has picked clearly points to Raj’s one-point agenda: ruining Sena’s winning chances. He has also been training guns on the Sena in parts of rural Maharashtra where it did well in the last Lok Sabha elections. It aims to win up to 15 seats and wreck Sena’s fortunes perhaps in an equal number by splitting the Marathi vote.

That, in case of a close fight between the NCP-Congress and BJP-Sena, can place the MNS firmly in the place of the kingmaker.

A senior leader in MNS said, “Raj is unmindful of whether the fight leaves Sena bleeding or brings Congress back to power.” But formally, Raj merely says, “whoever supports my agenda for Maharashtra, will get my support.”

The BJP-Sena combine is happy about the rebels of the NCP trying to wreck the chances of the Congress, but is worried how the battle of the Thackerays would upset its own arithmetic.

The Congress’s dependence on MNS is an open secret. The decision to trigger a Marathi versus north-Indian debate last fortnight was part of a calculated strategy approved by its central leadership. Said chief minister Ashok Chavan: “The Congress has its own traditional vote share. But division of Marathi votes will definitely help the Congress.”
On his part, NCP chief Sharad Pawar told DNA: “This time MNS is not going to just play the role of spoil sport but win seats.”

Uddhav draws huge crowds who remain silent as he attacks the Congress-NCP’s failures. Raj too attracts crowds who respond to his florid and rhetorical prose and he never significantly attacks the Congress-NCP. That is what is worrying the Sena managers.