‘Southwest monsoon to be within normal range’

Meteorologists from across South Asia said the summer monsoon rainfall over South Asia for the 2011 season would most likely be within the normal range.

This view was expressed in a consensus statement issued on the concluding day of the three-day South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF-2), which concluded in Pune on Friday.

The statement, released on the website of the Indian meteorology department (IMD) on Friday, is based on various prevailing global climate conditions and forecasts from different empirical and dynamical climate models.

However, the statement did indicate the slightly enhanced likelihood of below normal rainfall conditions over north-western parts and some north-eastern parts of South Asia. It also pointed out the slightly enhanced likelihood of above normal rainfall over southern parts of South Asia, including the islands.

The second session of SASCOF held at Pune between April 13-15 was preceded by a five-day (April 8-12, 2011) capacity building training workshop on ‘seasonal prediction of southwest monsoon rainfall’ for participants from six South Asian countries, namely Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal and Sri Lanka, conducted at the IMD, Pune.