Numerical weather processing (NWP) models are here to say and will play an increasingly important role in predicting the weather more accurately, according to Kamal Puri, senior principal research scientist at the Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research.
Puri was delivering the second PR Pisharoty distinguished lecture at the annual monsoon workshop organised by the Indian Meteorological Society, Pune chapter (IMSP) in the auditorium of the National Chemical Laboratory in the city on Wednesday.
Puri said, “The last 10 years have seen a greater reliance on NWP models and this has resulted in our weather predictions becoming more accurate.” He cited recent examples of natural disasters that were accurately predicted by the weather scientists in Melbourne using NWPs.
These include the massive bush fire of February 2009 in the state of Victoria in Australia, which destroyed massive forests and killed 170 people. According to Puri, the weather scientists had predicted a ‘black Saturday’ when day temperatures hit 47 degrees in Victoria, including Melbourne, one of the reasons that led to the bush fire.
Puri also cited the example of the September 2010 Victoria floods, which was once again accurately predicted by weather scientists using NWPs.
In the course of his lecture, Puri introduced audiences to the history of mathematical models in the field of weather forecasting. According to him, it was the English scientist Lewis Richardson (1881-1953), who pioneered mathematical techniques in weather
forecasting.
According to Puri, climate change is a reality of our times. He used data that he had collated from several NWPs to prove that there was a rise in sea levels, global warming and carbon dioxide. “NWPs have spectacularly increased our ability to monitor earth systems better,” Puri said.
Comments