MNS inroads in Mumbai, Thane will damage Sena-BJP

If there is one clear message coming through in the run-up to the Maharashtra assembly poll, it is this: Raj Thackeray’s Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) is going to have the casting vote — especially in the crucial urban areas of Mumbai, Pune and Thane, which account for a fourth of the total seats.

An urban voting intentions poll commissioned by DNA in the 12 Lok Sabha constituencies of Mumbai (6), Thane (3) and Pune (3) suggests that the Shiv Sena-BJP combine is only marginally ahead of the Congress-Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) alliance in Mumbai, and seriously lagging behind in Pune and Thane. Together, these 12 Lok Sabha constituencies account for 72 assembly seats in the 288-member state assembly. They could thus decide the fate of the next government.

There is a small anti-incumbency vote available, but the MNS factor has dented the advantage the Sena-BJP should have had in this regard. The survey shows a 5% swing away from the Congress-NCP compared to last time, but this is counterbalanced by a 7% swing away from the Sena-BJP — both almost entirely accounted for by the MNS.

In short, the MNS has dented the Sena-BJP more than the Congress. The swing has been calculated by asking respondents how they voted last time, and how they intended to vote this time.

The survey, conducted over the last week by IMRS India, covered 2,400 respondents in all, half in Mumbai’s six Lok Sabha constituencies, and the balance in Thane and Pune.

The results show that the Sena-BJP combine will get around 39% of the Mumbai vote against the Congress-NCP’s 38%. With the MNS taking away a chunky 13%, it is quite clear that it will not only open its account in the state assembly, but also damage the
Sena-BJP’s chances in urban Maharashtra. The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), and the Republican Party-Samajwadi-Communist front will impact some constituencies, but not the basic trend.

In Mumbai, the Sena-BJP is clearly ahead in Mumbai South and Mumbai North, and marginally ahead in Mumbai North-West. The Congress-NCP is ahead in Mumbai North-Central and Mumbai South-Central, two areas where the MNS has made deep inroads.

In Mumbai North-East, where the Congress-NCP is marginally ahead with 38% of the vote (vs Sena-BJP’s 34%), the spoiler is the BSP with 12% of the vote. The battle could thus go either way. If the BSP does better and the MNS not as well, the
Sena-BJP alliance could have a better chance here.

Translating votes into seats is always a tricky affair, especially in assembly constituencies where margins of victory tend to be small in closely-fought elections. But if vote shares indicated by the DNA-IMRS opinion poll hold on election day, and if seats are proportionate to vote share, the Congress-NCP and Sena-BJP will win around 13-14 seats each, with MNS taking five, and the rest the balance three.

In the last Lok Sabha elections in May, the Congress led in 23 assembly constituencies in Mumbai, the NCP in one, the Sena in two and the MNS is five. The huge difference
In Pune, which has three largely urban Lok Sabha constituencies (Pune, Maval and Baramati), the Congress-NCP combine is decisively ahead in all three with a clear two-thirds of the vote (64% to the Sena BJP’s 24%). The MNS gets only 10% in these constituencies, but could make gains in Pune city. In the Pune constituencies, the NCP is the senior partner in the alliance, and hence will have to prove its mettle here. Else it could lose clout with the Congress.

It is in the urban areas of Thane that the MNS is making its largest gains, with a potential vote share of 16% (compared to Congress-NCP’s 56% and Sena-BJP’s 24%). In fact, while the Congress is the largest party in terms of voter preference by far, the Shiv Sena and NCP and MNS are running neck and neck with 18%, 18%, and 16% of voter preference. The MNS may spring a surprise in Kalyan, as it has emerged as the party with the largest vote share of 35%. It could thus make huge gains in seats here.

The low vote shares shown by parties other than the two combines and the MNS suggests that rebels may not be a major factor in this election. They will make a difference, however, in the final number of seats won by parties, since winning margins may tend to be thin.

In short, everything will depend on voter turnout and mobilisation by the parties. But as of now, the Congress-NCP looks set reap rewards in the urban areas.