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Intel report: Sena-BJP will not cross 100 seats

Intelligence Bureau (IB) has predicted that the Shiv Sena-BJP combine will barely touch the 100-seat mark in the just-concluded elections to the Maharashtra assembly.

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Intelligence Bureau (IB) has predicted that the Shiv Sena-BJP combine will barely touch the 100-seat mark in the just-concluded elections to the Maharashtra assembly, thereby ruling out any chance of a saffron alliance government.

The bureau has predicted that the Congress and Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) would return to power, even though it will require the support of independents, rebels and the Third Front to prop them up for a stable dispensation. The Congress-NCP combine will bag 137 seats, the bureau has soothsayed along the lines predicted by various exit polls.

But the element of surprise is the massive decline it predicts for the BJP in the state. According to IB estimates, the BJP will not be able to cross 35 to 40 seats which is a huge decline from its previous tally of 56 seats which they got in the 2004 assembly elections. The Shiv Sena, rebuilding itself under the leadership of executive president Uddhav Thackeray, will win in 55 and 60 seats, according to the bureau estimates.

It also means that the Cong-NCP combine will be eyeing the rebels who, according to the reports, are expected to get 25 seats, or the independents who are likely to get anywhere between 12-14 seats. The Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) is likely to bag eight to 10 seats, suggests the report.

The results of the state assembly elections which went to the polls on October 13 will be declared on October 22. The IB and other intelligence agencies conduct their own survey based on the ground-level reports of the police and other cadres.

The report indicates that that Congress will emerge as a single largest party winning 77 seats and its alliance partner NCP 58-60 seats. The rebels, the report says, will hold the key to the formation of next government winning 25 seats. However, the Third Front, a conglomeration of 20 parties, is likely to make no impact and is expected to bag just two seats.

The bureau analysis gives just eight to 10 seats to the Raj Thackeray-led MNS. The independents will win 12 to 14 seats, says the report.

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