The Mumbai metropolitan region’s population is expected to touch 33 million by 2030, says a McKinsey Global Institute report. The report states that the unprecedented urbanisation is expected to burden the already overstretched urban services like water supply, transportation, etc. But, there's a brighter side too — rise in the per capita income and more jobs.
Mumbai is already bursting at its seams. Horrific congestion levels have put serious strain on the city’s infrastructure and urban services in the past decade.
And, the bad news is that Mumbai’s situation could worsen. According to a study conducted by the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) on how urbanisation would evolve in the city, the urban population of the Mumbai metropolitan region could double in the next two decades.
The report, which was released on Thursday, projected that urban areas in the city’s metropolitan region would house at least 33 million people by 2030.
Considering the current status, expected growth in urban population levels will be steep. As per the 2001 census, urban population in the Mumbai metropolitan region was 18 million.
The population swell is likely to put a further burden on urban services like water supply, transportation, housing, storm water drains and sewage collection, among others. These services are already struggling to keep pace with the city’s growing population, the study said.
The research team, which worked on the study, said the projections were a “robust” econometric model developed to study the impacts of urbanisation at the local, state and national level. “Consultations were held with various stakeholders — government officials, urban experts and economists for the study,” said MGI’s Ireena Vitthal. She added that current levels of delivery for these services were also taken into account.
Delhi-based consultant Ajit Mohan, who headed the study, said that organic growth and expansion in the Mumbai metropolitan region limits will primarily be responsible for the increase in urbanisation. He added that the migration rate was estimated to be around 20%.
The report suggested that an urban gridlock and further deterioration of the quality of life in Mumbai was inevitable unless drastic steps were taken to improve urban infrastructure, which is needed to cope with the population swell. And, to turn things around, the city will firstly need to increase its spending on urban infrastructure manifold.
According to Mohan, the metropolitan region will need an investment of close to $300 billion in capital expenditure alone to cater to the infrastructure needs.
“The current annual spending levels will have to be upped eight-fold,” the study said, recommending housing and transportation to be the two most capital intensive sectors, followed by roads, water, and sewage.
According to the report, effective land monetisation, higher property taxes and user charges could be used to generate most of the revenue requirement.
Also, public-private partnerships and formula-based government funding are recommended as other alternatives. Building up infrastructure in satellite townships has been recommended as another way of decongesting the city.
On the positive side, the report said that the “unprecedented” urbanisation will lead to a rise in per capita income and hence a rise in job opportunities. “The GDP in 2030 for Mumbai is expected to be $265 billion, which will be larger than the GDP of countries like Portugal and Columbia, among others,” Mohan said.
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
)
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
)
)
)
)
)
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}