A serological survey on Swine Flu antibodies is currently underway to determine the prospects of Pune developing "herd immunity" to the dreaded H1N1 virus.
As it continues to reel under the pandemic that has claimed 102 lives in the last three months so far, the city would be looking eagerly at the findings of the survey being jointly undertaken by National Institute of Virology (NIV) and Indian Medical Association (IMA) here on November 27/28.
In fact, the exercise would mark the second phase of the experiment in which one thousand doctors drawn from a segment having greater exposure to H1N1 infected patients --- are to be covered with extraction of 3ml blood to test presence of antibodies of the virus, Dr Dilip Sarda, chairman of Pune chapter of IMA told PTI.
He said an initial survey conducted on similar lines about two and a half months back, had indicated a marginal --- 10%-12%--- presence of H1N1 antibodies in the blood samples of the subjects having sub-clinical infection.
The survey which aims at ascertaining the percentage of population which has over a period of time developed H1N1 antibodies assumes significance in the context of "herd immunity" that can arrest the pandemic in the city which has emerged as the focal point of Swine flu casualties, registering the first fatality in the country on August 3.
Dr Sarda said the use of term "herd immunity" would be meaningful and could have relevance only if 50%-70% of the population is estimated to have developed antibodies to the virus, denoting natural resistance.
If this range of antibodies is confirmed in subsequent surveys, the Swine Flu pandemic could be petering out,he said.
Although the nascent first phase of the experiment had registered an insignificant percentage of the subjects developing H1N1 antibodies, the second phase due by the month end might lead to encouraging findings in view of the relatively long period that has elapsed.
For the antibodies confirmatory tests in the survey, NIV and IMA have selected medical professionals who are most exposed to the suspected Swine flu patients in Pune and surrounding areas.
"We have chosen mainly family physicians and general practitioners who are foremost in the exposure to the virus and not the specialist doctors to be covered under the survey", said Dr Sarda.
A batch of 200 identified doctors each from Kothrud, Yeravada, Pimpri-Chichwad and Cantonment and Tilak road areas in the city, would make for the 1000 subjects for the serological survey that could determine the course the rampant might take in days to come.
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