Senior Shiv Sena leaders admitted that since the tailwinds suggested things were likely to get tougher for the BJP in 2019
The BJP's defeat in three heartland states may lead to a strategic re-alignment in its relationship with its estranged ally, the Shiv Sena, in Maharashtra. The Sena may decide to contest the Lok Sabha polls on its own strength, sans an alliance with the BJP, while the rival Raj Thackeray led Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) is likely to strike a pre-poll alliance or understanding with the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP).
Areas in Maharashtra like Vidarbha and Marathwada share a border with Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Telangana.
Senior Shiv Sena leaders admitted that since the tailwinds suggested things were likely to get tougher for the BJP in 2019, the Sena could proceed with its decision to contest alone or secure more seats from the BJP in case of an alliance. The BJP is trying to woo the Shiv Sena for a pre-poll tie-up.
The Shiv Sena's new-found aggression on the Ram Temple issue and Hindutva was seen as an attempt to mend fences and create an escape route to re-build an alliance with the BJP. Sena president Uddhav Thackeray, in the party's national conclave in January, had said they would contest future elections on its own strength. Shiv Sena sources claim that if they fight alone, the party will be able to win eight seats (compared to 18 in 2014), but damage the BJP at many places.
The Shiv Sena is uneasy at being relegated to the number two position after dominating the BJP after joining hands with it in 1989. The BJP snapped its alliance with the Sena and contested the assembly polls on its own to emerge as the single-largest party. The Shiv Sena continues to live out a contradiction—it is part of the Narendra Modi and Devendra Fadnavis led dispensations and yet attacks the two dispensations repeatedly.
"Maharashtra has always voted with the national mood," noted a senior Sena leader, claiming that the party could finally split from the BJP before the Lok Sabha elections. The Shiv Sena has already asked its leaders to prepare to contest the Lok Sabha polls solo.
However, a Shiv Sena official pointed out that the party's aggression on the Ram Temple and Hindutva could hurt it in the Mumbai- Thane-Konkan belt where Muslims and Dalits voted for it strategically to keep the BJP and Congress away.
"During the 2014 state assembly elections, Muslims were angry at the Congress and did not want to vote for the BJP. They chose to back the Shiv Sena as it was capable of taking on both parties and a winnable option. Emotional issues like the Ram Temple, Hindutva and cow slaughter may take this constituency away from us," he said.
The Shiv Sena source claimed that even if the Sena and BJP decided to ally for the Lok Sabha polls, the emotional divide between the cadre and middle-rung leadership of the two parties, who actually work on the ground, was too wide to be bridged. If this scenario played out, it was likely that Sena and BJP workers would clandestinely work for the Congress or NCP. Shiv Sena nominees, who are preparing to contest from Lok Sabha seats already held by the BJP, may also switch to other parties.
"The Shiv Sena has a captive, dedicated vote-base of around 2 to 2.5 lakh voters in each Lok Sabha constituency in Mumbai. Considering that a candidate may need around 3.5 lakh votes to win, the right selection of nominees combined with groundwork by our cadre may see us through in a couple of seats in Mumbai. The BJP's voters today are composed of elite and upper caste Maharashtrians, Gujaratis, Marwadis and Jains, and the North Indians. If North Indians shift partially from the BJP towards the Congress, the Shiv Sena may be able to make the cut," a senior Shiv Sena leader explained.
In case of a good performance in the Lok Sabha polls, the Shiv Sena may use this to drive a hard bargain for the assembly elections due a few months later.
Trivia
- First Lok Sabha (1952-57)
First ever elections were held for 489 seats after Independence. The total number of eligible voters were close to 17 crore. Jawaharlal Nehru was elected Independent India’s first Prime Minister.
- Sixth Lok Sabha (1977-79)
These were the first elections after then Prime Minister Indira Gandhi had imposed Emergency in 1975. Bharatiya Lok Dal (or the Janata Party) had defeated the Congress for the first time.
- Seventh Lok Sabha (1980-84)
No Leader of Opposition (LoP). Congress(I), under the leadership of Indira Gandhi, won 353 of the 529 seats.
- Ninth Lok Sabha (1989-91)
There was a hung House for the first time with no party getting a majority. The Janata Dal formed the National Front government with outside support from BJP and the Left parties. General elections were held in just 2 years.
- Tenth Lok Sabha (1991-96)
Rajiv Gandhi was assassinated in the run up to the 1991 general elections by the LTTE. These elections were also termed as the ‘Mandal-Mandir’ elections. The name was given after the two most important election issues — the Mandal Commission and the Babri Masjid issue.
Every vote matters
The most intriguing and closest of the no-confidence motion happened in 1999 when the Vajpayee government lost the no-confidence motion by just 1 vote which led to its fall.
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The Shiv Sena's new-found aggression on the Ram Temple issue and Hindutva was seen as an attempt to mend fences and create an escape route to re-build an alliance with the BJP. Sena president Uddhav Thackeray, in the party's national conclave in January, had said they would contest future elections on its own strength. Shiv Sena sources claim that if they fight alone, the party will be able to win eight seats (compared to 18 in 2014), but damage the BJP at many places.
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