The 13th state assembly elections threw up several surprises. One among them is the vote share statistics, which explain how BJP steadily created political space in Maharashtra even though it was perceived as a "small brother" in the saffron alliance, which collapsed a few days before polls.
The BJP, which has emerged as the largest party in the state for the first time with 122 seats in its kitty, has polled over 27.8% of the votes in Maharashtra. While the party's seat tally saw an almost three-fold jump this time as compared to 2009 election, when it won 46 seats, the increase in vote share, from 14.02% to 27.8%, is two-fold.
The vote share of Shiv Sena, which won 63 seats as against 46 in the previous polls, has also gone up from 16.26% to 19.3%. NCP's too grew from 16.37% to 17.2% from 2009 to 2014 despite its tally reducing to 41 from 62. Among the four main parties, only Congress's vote share saw a decline from 21% to 18% in five years, while its seat share saw a big drop from 82 to 42.
Interestingly, BJP's vote share was just 12.8% in the 1995 assembly elections, when it bagged power for the first time, with Sena being a major partner. Sena's vote share was a little over 16% then.
From 1995 till 2014, Sena's vote share has seen a growth of 16.3% to 19.3%. BJP too has grown, albeit at a slower pace, getting 14% votes in 2009.
Congress, on the other hand, has been losing ground gradually since 1995, when it polled over 31% votes, which reduced to 27% in 1999, and slipped further thereafter. In 2004 and 2009, the party polled just 21% votes even though it bagged power in coalition with NCP for three consecutive terms since 1999.
Experts attribute Congress's poor performance to various factors, which include anti-incumbency, Adarsh scam, infighting and lack of will power.
"The party had already accepted defeat, with many of its candidates not even campaigning in their constituencies fearing loss," said a senior leader. Congress spokesperson Nizamuddin Rayeen, however, cited sudden collapse of the alliance with NCP and the entry of Majlis-eIttehadul Muslimeen in the fray, among other factors.
"Most candidates, who were pitted from NCP strongholds, didn't get adequate time to campaign as they were given tickets at the last minute. It wasn't possible to cover the whole constituency in 10 days, so they decided not to waste money," admitted Rayeen. He also said the MIM, which contested 24 seats and won two, also spoiled the chances of at least 15 Congress nominees by polling over 15,000 votes at each seat.
Congress also lost its traditional vote banks of Dalits, tribals, Muslims and north Indians to BJP, say observers. Political commentator Surendra Jondhale said, "The voters in Maharashtra are making their own political choice. Many, who have been supporting Congress for decades, supported BJP this time because of PM Narendra Modi. However, BJP has still got less than 28% vote share, which is a fractured mandate."
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