If Japanese meteorologist Dr Toshio Yamagata’s prediction turns out to be accurate, India may suffer a drought-like situation and a very hot summer in 2013.
Dr Yamagata is the director of the application laboratory at Yokohama Institute for Earth Sciences, a Japan-based agency for Marine and Earth Sciences and Technology. He was in Pune to deliver a lecture on the 51st foundation day of the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), where he spoke to the audience about the weather prediction for 2013.
“This prediction is based on the present weather conditions in the Indian subcontinent. It looks like the summer will be severe in India in the year 2013, and due to this, India is likely to receive less rain and face a drought-like situation,” Dr Yamagata said.
Elaborating on this, Dr Yamagata told DNA, “If the Sumatra region is cold, it holds less moisture and in turn, India receives good rainfall. But if Sumatra is hot, it holds more moisture usual, resulting in less rainfall in India. On the other hand, Indonesia ends up receiving good rainfall. Looking at the present situation, the Sumatra region is likely to remain hot, as a result of which India is likely to have a very hot summer in 2013 and receive less rainfall.”
India had a disappointing monsoon this year as well, with various parts of the country, including Maharashtra, facing water shortage problems. If the summer next year turns out to be as bad as predicted, the water levels are likely to go down further.
Dr Yamagata has termed the last decade as the decade of changes and variations, where frequent climate changes — which resulted in abnormal weather — were experienced. However, he said it cannot be termed as a trend. Yamagata also said that the Indian Ocean is becoming one of the important drivers of the recent climate variations in the world.