Even though Thackeray and Fadnavis have been reiterating that an alliance will be struck and will win more than 220 seats, the wait is getting longer for stitching the alliance
Notwithstanding the ongoing seat sharing talks with BJP, Shiv Sena president Uddhav Thackeray predicted on Wednesday, in the presence of Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis, that the saffron alliance will come return to power after assembly polls. But Thackeray chose to convey to BJP that Sena sticks to its words and stays away from vindictive politics.
Thackeray's statement at the inaugural function of Mathadi Workers' workshop in Navi Mumbai deserves importance as Sena and BJP are currently engaged in a hard bargain for arriving at a seat-share arrangement for state assembly elections. Even though Thackeray and Fadnavis have been reiterating that an alliance will be struck and will win more than 220 seats, the wait is getting longer for stitching the alliance.
Despite plans for a pact with the BJP, the Shiv Sena is caught in a dilemma over the impact of playing second fiddle to its senior ally in its erstwhile traditional constituencies in Mumbai, regions like Vidarbha, Pune, Nashik and Thane.
The Shiv Sena had lost ground to the BJP in 2014 after the latter snapped ties with it on the eve of assembly polls. Then, the BJP, and to a smaller extent the Shiv Sena, won seats where the other party had been winning or contesting from.
In 2014, the BJP made inroads in these areas where the Sena had a significant political space. The alliance may force Sena to relinquish claim on seats which BJP had won defeating Sena nominees. It faces this predicament in Mumbai, where the BJP wrested the Goregaon, Vile Parle, Dahisar, Versova and Andheri segments from it. Similarly, the Shiv Sena gained Chembur and Kalina from the BJP.
Outside Mumbai, this covers assembly segments like Shivajinagar and Kothrud in Pune, all three seats in Nashik city, Thane city, which was the stronghold of the party, Ramtek near Nagpur and Jalgaon city.
"It seems there will be no change in the 122 seats held by the BJP and 63 by us, though a swap may take place in exceptional cases. Convincing our cadre and local leadership to let go of assembly seats where we have won or traditionally contested from is not going to be easy," said a senior Sena leader.
He admitted this would have a far-reaching impact on the party's strength and grassroots support base in these areas. It may also lead to a gradual erosion of support and migration from the ranks into other parties, especially the BJP.
Relinquishing claim on seats in Mumbai means affecting its standing in local politics, something that may impact its performance in the BMC elections due in 2022, where the Sena believes the BJP will be its toughest adversary.
The Shiv Sena leader admitted that one reason for the party agreeing to an alliance with BJP was the likelihood of its incumbent legislators shifting loyalties to the BJP in case the two decided to contest separately.
Sena legislator Pratap Patil Chikhalikar defected to BJP and trounced former chief minister Ashok Chavan (Congress) from Nanded to emerge as a giant killer. Harshavardhan Jadhav, Sena's MLA from Kannad in Aurangabad, has already left the party and fought as an independent from Aurangabad, leading to the defeat of the party's Chandrakant Khaire and the victory of the All India Majlis E Ittehadul Muslimeen's (AIMIM) Imtiaz Jaleel in a multi-cornered fight.
"We lost these seats in the Narendra Modi wave. While entering into an alliance will need some compromises from our end, as a party and organisation, we may face loss of support in seats relinquished to the BJP," said a former Sena legislator, who lost to a BJP nominee in the last elections.
Jostle For City Seats
|
An alliance may force Shiv Sena to relinquish claim on seats which BJP had won defeating Sena nominees
|
| It faces this predicament in Mumbai, where BJP wrested Goregaon, Vile Parle, Dahisar, Versova and Andheri from it |
—With inputs from Sanjay Jog
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
 "Uddhav Thackeray")
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
)
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
)
)
)
)
)
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}