Caught in a cleft and in desperate need for a face saver, a repeatedly snubbed Shiv Sena stopped short of snapping ties with estranged ally BJP. Sena president Uddhav Thackeray gave a choice to the BJP it’s either Sharad Pawar’s NCP or me -- and stressed on the need for Hindutva forces to stay united at a time when “anti-Hindu” elements (an allusion to the hardline AIMIM) had made inroads in Maharashtra.
After the party failed to hammer out a compromise with the BJP for power-sharing in Maharashtra, Anil Desai, its nominee in the Union council of ministers, had to return from the Delhi airport to Mumbai without being sworn in.
But the day really belonged to former Shiv Sena minister Suresh Prabhu who sprang the biggest surprise. Prabhu was sworn in as cabinet minister on Sunday evening after joining the BJP only in the morning – leaving the Shiv Sena fuming.
What is the future of Shiv Sena now?
It's caught in a spot. If the Sena joins the Fadnavis government, the party may have to settle for lesser number of ministerial berths and low-profile portfolios. As an opposition party, it can play the leader's role before the Congress and the NCP. Some Sena MLAs want to become ministers, many Shiv Sainiks want the party to sit in the opposition. A vertical split in the party's ranks cannot be ruled out.
What's Uddhav saying?
Contrary to expectations, Uddhav stopped short of snapping ties with the BJP. "If the BJP takes support from Sharad Pawar, we will sit in the opposition," he said. This statement best reflects the confusion in the party. On the one hand, Uddhav is ready to sit in the opposition. On the other hand, he says Hindutva forces in Maharashtra should remain united for countering "forces which speak of finishing Hindus."
What is BJP's Operation Lotus?
It's a strategy the party successfully employed in Karnataka: split other parties and wean their MLAs. In Maharashtra, the BJP faces a win-win situation, with both the Sena and the NCP lining up to offer support. If it wants to humiliate the Sena, the BJP can settle for the NCP's "unconditional, outside support" and gradually split legislators from other parties, including the Sena. These MLAs can be fielded as BJP nominees in case they fall under the anti-defection law.
Where will the new developments leave the NCP?
The NCP, which ended up at Number 4 – with 41 seats -- stole a march over the Sena by declaring support to the BJP. BJP leaders say the NCP wants to use the support as a shield against the cases of corruption against many of its leaders and liken this "outside, unconditional support" to "anticipatory bail." It may also seek to drive the BJP's government policy on key issues and marshal its forces to stage a comeback in the next polls. Incidentally, the results of the assembly elections are seen more as anti-NCP than anti-Congress.
Where are the other saffron allies?
Barring the Rashtriya Samaj Party led by dhangar (shepherd) leader Mahadeo Jankar, who could get a NCP defector elected as a party candidate, the four other smaller saffron allies have drawn a blank. However, this has not dented their ambitions. RPI leader and Rajya Sabha MP Ramdas Athawale is miffed at not being given a berth in the Modi government. Jankar is angry at not being made a state cabinet minister. Farmer leader and Lok Sabha MP Raju Shetti and Maratha leader Vinayak Mete, too, want the BJP to accommodate their partymen in the Lok Sabha.
Which are the parties in BJP's cross-hairs?
The BJP plans to poach MLAs from all parties, though much also depends on the response of individual legislators.
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