Mumbai
Updated : Oct 21, 2014, 06:50 AM IST
The stunning debut by the hardline AIMIM notwithstanding, the number of Muslims in the state legislative assembly has declined. The present assembly will have just nine Muslim legislators, down from 10 who were elected in 2009.
Incidentally, the number of Muslim MLAs in Maharashtra has declined by one in every election in the recent past. In 1999, a total of 12 Muslim legislators were elected, but in 2004 the number fell to 11. The 2009 elections to the Maharashtra assembly saw just 10 Muslim MLAs being elected. This number has fallen to nine now. This includes five from the Congress, two from the AIMIM, and one each from the NCP and Samajwadi Party.
Activists and politicians from within the community attributed this to increasing fragmentation of the Muslim vote. Moreover, increased polarisation has made transfer of votes from one religious community to another tough, except on tactical grounds.
Maharashtra has the fourth largest Muslim population after Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal and Bihar and the community accounts for 10.6% of the state's population with substantial numbers in regions like Mumbai, Marathwada, Vidarbha and North Maharashtra.
The state does not have a single Muslim in the Lok Sabha, with former chief minister Abdul Rehman Antulay (Congress- Raigad) being the last to enter the lower house of Parliament in 2004.
Incidentally, this is happening at a time when the state of the community is worsening in terms of socio-economic indices like education, health and employment. A state-appointed committee under former IAS officer Mehmood-ur-Rehman, noted that 59.8% Muslims in rural and 59.4% in urban areas were below the poverty line with just 2.2% graduates. The community--the largest minority in Maharashtra--has just 4.2% representation in the police, while accounting for 28.3% undertrials (in 2007).
A senior Congress leader told dna that in seats like Bhiwandi, which have a strong minority presence, multiple Muslim candidates in the fray had fragmented their votes and ensured the victory of either the Shiv Sena or BJP. "Above all, the situation was different. The four established political parties were contesting on their own and hence this division of votes," he added.
Notably, the anger against the ruling Congress and NCP had led to some Muslims, especially Marathi Muslims, deciding to support the Shiv Sena or BJP. The Sena also enjoys support in a section of Muslims on the Konkan coast and late Shiv Sena chief Bal Thackeray had also campaigned for good friend Antulay when he was contesting from the Srivardhan assembly segment after becoming the chief minister in 1980.
However, the Congress leader lamented that in the post-1990's communal polarisation, transfer of votes to minority leaders was becoming difficult.
"Muslims are either not given tickets or fielded from seats where they have little chance of being elected," complained Shabbir Ahmed Ansari of the influential All India Muslim OBC Organisation, adding that while the Congress and NCP had given nominations to eight Muslims in Marathwada, of which three were in one district of Parbhani, only two Muslims were given tickets in Vidarbha.
"The BJP's strength has increased while the voting percentage of Muslims have reduced. The AIMIM cut into votes badly," said Samajwadi Party MLA Abu Asim Azmi, who is seeing his hardline space being encroached upon by the newer entrant on the block.
The major reason of course remains that the Muslims do not yet perceive any party to be truly representative of their interest. It is in this context that the creditable performance of the Hyderabad based Owaisi's AIMIM has to be viewed. If the three party legislators deliver in some way then the party can consolidate the Muslim vote in Maharashtra.