Facing the make-or-break battle after its ally, BJP, snapped ties, the Shiv Sena is hoping to increase its tally in Mumbai. Its hopes are based on Maharashtrian voters coming out in its favour in the most fragmented and multi-polar contest to take place in the state in almost three decades.
However, BJP, which has a lot at stake after the Narendra Modi-induced sweep of Mumbai, may gain on account of a reverse consolidation of Gujaratis, mercantile communities and north Indians in an election centred around ethnicity and identity rather than brick and mortar issues like development.
Wafer-thin majorities likely
The fractured polity may lead to wafer-thin victory margins with all four principal parties—Sena, BJP, Congress and NCP—staking it out on their own with smaller players like MNS, AIMIM and the Left likely to pay the spoilers. The bitter split in the two main alliances had led to these parties targeting their erstwhile allies.
In 2009, Sena got just four of the 36 seats in Mumbai, where it enjoys political preeminence, largely due to rival Raj Thackeray-led MNS playing the spoiler and walking away with a chunk of its core Maharashtrian voters, especially its natural catchment of youth and women. The Congress won 17 seats, followed by MNS (6), BJP (5), NCP (3) and Samajwadi Party (1). Sena and BJP swept all the six seats in Mumbai in the Lok Sabha polls.
Where do Sena hopes lie?
Sena hopes to increase its tally in Mumbai and regions like Thane and Konkan belt, which are organically linked to the metropolis based on the massive consolidation of Maharashtrian voters. With voter enthusiasm failing to touch LS poll levels, parties like Shiv Sena and Congress, which have a committed vote-base, can look to make gains.
“We are likely to gain in Mumbai, Thane and Konkan,” said a Sena source, adding that the lukewarm response of first-time and young voters could hurt BJP.
“Congress and NCP have been traditionally weak in Mumbai and since we are contesting independently, our strength has eroded further,” admitted a NCP candidate from Mumbai, adding that all four parties traditionally has weak organisational strength in areas where their ally normally contested.
“BJP and Shiv Sena are charged up based on their Lok Sabha victory, which has increased their self-confidence. Congress and NCP seemed to have accepted defeat mentally even before the polling. With Maharashtrians consolidating behind Sena and Gujaratis with BJP, our hopes lie on other communities supporting us,” he added.
Response positive, feels BJP
BJP MLC and its city chief Ashish Shelar, who is contesting from Bandra (west), however claimed his party had positive response across Mumbai. “The anti-govt sentiment has ensured us a good response,” he said.
Shelar however, refused to believe youngsters, considered instrumental in BJP's thumping victory in parliamentary polls, had turned out in lesser number this election. “The overall voting percentage has not reduced, so we can’t say youngsters did not show up,” he said.
Though MNS leaders admitted that their tally of six in 2009 was likely to be halved, Sandeep Deshpande, party group leader in BMC, said they would better their performance. “Our party has reached out to people with a development plan in the form of our blue print. We have worked really hard. So, we are very sure we will better the 2009 tally,” Deshpande said.
A Congress candidate from western suburbs tried to put up a brave face saying the party expected to stay in the hunt because of the Shiv Sena-BJP split.
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