Maharashtra was thrown into a state of political turmoil as two of its long-standing political combinations, which sustained themselves through mutual give-and-take through the last two tumultuous decades, collapsed on the issue of seat-sharing and chief ministership.
The glue of ideological unity melted under the heat of megalomanical ambitions and every party's overestimate of its own importance, clout and reach.
The issue that broke the Shiv Sena-BJP alliance and the Congress- NCP alliance were ironically the same. In the end, it was a collision of personal ambitions that did both the alliances in. Sena's Uddhav Thackeray had expressed his intention of being the CM but the BJP, still riding the tsunamic high of the Lok Sabha victory, would have none of it. It was not willing to be junior partner to the Sena. Thackeray and his party believed that, in Maharashtra, Narendra Modi was but a name not a vote-catcher or a dream seller.
Sharad Pawar's NCP, after willingly playing second fiddle to the Congress all these years, decided that now was the time to push for chief ministership. Ajit Pawar, Sharad's nephew had made no secret of his ambitions. Unfortunately for him, chief minister Prithiviraj Chavan, who was supposed to disappear under the humiliation of the Lok Sabha defeat, suddenly energised himself, injected with the adrenalin of the high command support, and stated that he is, after all, not just the chief minister but the saviour of Maharashtra as well.
Will Maharashtra set the trend for the fissiparous political realignments across the country?
What happened?
The Shiv Sena was unwilling to yield to the demand for 130 seats from the BJP and climb down from its position to contest 148- 150 seats. The smaller allies, in turn, were not satisfied at the seven seats given to them. The Congress, which refused to heed the NCP's demand for 144 seats, announced its first list of 118 candidates in a take-it-or-leave-it position towards its ally. The Congress had been belligerent on its stand of not parting with over 128 seats for the NCP.
Who said what?
"Both the BJP and the Sena wanted to oust the Congress from state but we couldn't proceed ditching our smaller allies, which the Sena wanted," said Eknath Khadse, leader of opposition in the legislative assembly.
State BJP president Devendra Fadnavis said: "...Sena wanted the CM's post and clung on to a particular number of seats. The talks were simply revolving around one number and were making no headway." Vinod Tawde, leader of opposition in legislative council, said the Sena left no choice for the BJP.
Who is responsible for NCP-Cong split?
Deputy chief minister Ajit Pawar put the blame on chief minister Prithviraj Chavan. "We had been in alliance with the Congress. I worked with chief ministers Vilasrao Deshmukh, Sushilkumar Shinde and Ashok Chavan. There used to be some differences over seat-sharing with these Congress CMs, but eventually, there was always an alliance between us. We never had issues with these CMs. However, the current chief minister was not forthcoming for an alliance. Therefore, we decided to go solo," he said.
What will be the implications?
There will be intense, multi-cornered contests between the Sena, the BJP, the NCP and Congress, with smaller parties like the MNS, the AIMIM and the Left playing the spoilers. The four main parties will be testing their strength after years of stagnation. There are hushed talks of a possible adjustment between the Sena and the MNS. The Congress (the NCP was formed in 1999), BJP and Shiv Sena last fought independently in 1985. The Sena just one seat (Chhagan Bhujbal from Mazgaon) and the BJP 16. However, the Sena and BJP tied up in 1989, and won 52 and 42 seats, respectively, a quantum leap from their previous performance.
What were the trends in the 2009, 2014 Lok Sabha polls?
In the recent Lok Sabha polls, the Shiv Sena and BJP led six-party alliance swept 42 of the 48 Lok Sabha seats and led in 243 constituencies. In 2009, the Shiv Sena lost its status as the principal opposition party, winning just 44 seats plus one independent against the BJP's 46. This tally does not take by-poll victories into account. In the 2009 Lok Sabha elections , the Congress- NCP alliance led in 133 assembly segments, as against Sena- BJP combine's 122.
What could be the possible post-poll realignments?
It will be open if a single party fails to get a majority. Major political re-alignments may occur, with old bonds being broken and new ones being forged. Already, Sena leaders have hinted at an underhand relationship between the BJP and the NCP, which led to the split. Sena sources claim that since the party has a broader social base, the BJP wants to dismantle it, brick by brick.
What about the MNS?
After forfeiting its security deposit in all 10 Lok Sabha seats, the Raj Thackeray-led MNS, which seemed to be at its lowest ebb, may have a chance to revive its fortunes. MNS sources speak in hushed tones of possible seat adjustments with the Sena, from which Raj split in 2006 to form his own party. In 2009, the MNS had engineered the defeat of the Shiv Sena and the BJP in 66 assembly seats.
Who are the likely CM contenders?
While the Shiv Sena has been pitching for party chief Uddhav Thackeray, the BJP has a host of leaders like Union minister Nitin Gadkari, Fadnavis, Tawade, Khadse and senior leader Sudhir Mungantiwar. Ajit Pawar's chief ministerial ambitions are no secret while CM Chavan will look to make a comeback with rivals like Ashok Chavan, Narayan Rane and others waiting in the wings.
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