Mumbai
Updated : Oct 22, 2014, 08:23 AM IST
More than two days after Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) president Sharad Pawar unleashed a political storm by announcing his party's outside support to the BJP, the fall-out of his calculated move is beginning to unravel.
The main aspect of the plot, planned in association with the BJP, is to diminish the clout and future of the Shiv Sena.
Did Pawar have a larger game plan by offering outside support?
He had. Though his stated objective was to give Maharashtra a stable government, the other plans he had were to diminish the clout of the Sena, to prevent some of his MLAs from defecting to the BJP, and, also, to ultimately keep the BJP and the Sena divided.
After having played a role in splitting the BJP-Sena alliance, he was trying to keep them separate. BJP likes the idea of a weakened Sena since their long-term plan is to take over the Sena vote bank. The NCP, by offering outside support, hopes to have a sympathetic government, which will help undertake development works in the constituencies of its legislators.
Also, NCP leaders, allegedly involved in scams, would not be touched.
Will the BJP shun the Sena and settle for the support?
NCP's was a pre-planned move announced after consulting senior BJP leaders.
The Congress has 42 seats, NCP 41 and Sena 62. If the BJP forms a minority government, with the NCP , Sena will automatically become the main opposition party. Also, the BJP eventually wants to take over the Sena vote bank and keeping them out of power for five more years will help matters.
Two Shiv Sena leaders, Subhash Sardesai and Anil Sardesai, have left for Delhi as Uddhav's emissaries to meet BJP leaders and try to be part of the government. The BJP will not agree to Sena's demand for half the ministries.
How did Pawar outwit both Sena and Congress?
NCP sources said extending support to the BJP would pay in the long run. "We are killing many birds with one stone. The Sena has been out of power for 15 years and will have to wait out for five more years. Without power, no party and its cadre can survive for long. So, the Sena will break sooner than later," a NCP leader said. The BJP will then mop up the Hindutva votes of the Sena and the NCP will settle for the crumbs. The BJP can grab the regional party space created by the Sena. "The Congress is in no position to rise immediately as the Muslim and Dalit vote bank is getting splintered. Thus, the NCP has outwitted both the Sena and the Congress with Pawar's masterstroke," the NCP leader said..
Sena losing ground has helped Pawar's plans
Sena president Uddhav Thackeray had expected at least 100 seats. Sena underperformance is the main reason why NCP is getting close to BJP. Had Sena done well, NCP may have extended its support in the name of mutual aspirations. Sena faltered in the Mumbai-Thane belt. Of the 60 seats here, Sena won only 21 while the BJP 24. It shows Sena can no longer depend on Marathi manoos (native Marathi speakers) to grow. Marathi population is barely 23% in Mumbai. Elections this time was Marathi manoos (excluding Brahmins) versus the rest in Mumbai-Thane. Not surprisingly, Saamna launched an attack on the NCP saying: "Many opportunists are out to take undue benefit of the lack of a clear majority for any party." It alleged that the only purpose of the NCP's unconditional support to the BJP was suppressing cases of corruption against its leaders. Saamna also pointed to how NCP chief Sharad Pawar had attacked the RSS during his party's campaign and said this amounted to the "insult of Hindutva."