With Maharashtra set to witness multi-corner contest as all the big five political parties are likely to field their respective candidates in most of the 288 constituencies, this election is going to be a close-fought poll for those in fray with each vote being crucial.
Notwithstanding the alliances with smaller outfits, major five parties Shiv Sena, BJP, Congress, NCP and MNS will be contesting the elections separately in most of the assembly constituencies, resulting in lower winning margins, say experts.
During the 2009 assembly polls, there were at least 15 constituencies in which the margin between votes secured by winning and first runner up candidates was less than 3,000, while the average number of electors in each constituency was between 1.5 lakh and 3 lakh.
The average votes secured by winning candidates were around 40 per cent of total votes polled. Political analysts say the number may plunge to half, about 20 per cent, in around one fifth of the total constituencies this time.
"There are 61 constituencies in state where winning margin is likely to be slim. His/her performance, set of supporters he/she has and monetary power will matter. Given candidates have very little time to campaign, it will be crucial how well his supporters work for the candidate and how well s/he uses social media to reach out to voters," Sandeep Pradhan, senior assistant editor with Marathi daily Lokmat, said.
Politicos in fray to agree that they have a tough job in hand.
"Earlier, we could have relied on votes Shiv Sena could fetch. But now I am set to fight against a Sena candidate. Also, the Congress and NCP are mulling to field their candidates. This is really worrying as every vote will matter," said BJP candidate. He added MNS may play party pooper.
Surendra Jondhale, professor of civics and politics (Mumbai University), seconded Pradhan. "However, one need to wait to see over the next few days to gauge if one party forms tacit understanding with other during campaign."
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