After Bal Thackeray, it's been a roller-coaster ride for Shiv Sena

On the third death anniversary of its party supremo Bal Thackeray on Tuesday, Shiv Sena may have something to cheer about, thanks to some green shoots of recovery which may portend an upswing in their future political fortunes.

For one, it has managed to recover some lost ground in traditional strongholds like Kalyan-Dombivali, where the Shiv Sena faced a setback at the hands of the BJP in the assembly elections. In a bitterly fought battle to the civic body located in Mumbai's extended suburbs, the Sena managed to emerge one up over the BJP in the sweepstakes, indicating that it was managing to revive itself. The two parties later joined hands for power.

The BJP's defeat in Bihar at the hands of the JDU-RJD combine has also warmed the cockles of Sena hawks, who are unable to reconcile themselves to life as a distant No. 2 in the saffron alliance they once dominated and hence spare no attempt to spite their ally. The two parties repeatedly cross swords despite being ruling allies in a government whose tenure seems to be marked more by this bickering than by any high watermark of governance.

Shiv Sena party president Uddhav Thackeray is also due to launch a tour of Maharashtra to consolidate the party organization and reach out to the masses. The tour is likely to be launched from December 5 from either drought-hit Marathwada or Vidarbha.

Incidentally, during his lifetime, Thackeray Sr's aura, personality and political pull kept the spotlight around the Shiv Sena in the saffron alliance which was forged in 1989 after an electorally unsuccessful attempt in 1984.
The 1927-born political cartoonist, who was the son of journalist, writer and social reformer 'Prabhodhankar' Keshav Sitaram Thackeray, started Marathi's first political cartoon magazine 'Marmik' in 1960. This laid the ground for the birth of the Shiv Sena with its jobs for the sons of soil pitch.

The Shiv Sena was formed in July 1966 at Thackeray's then residence at Ranade Road in Dadar and held its first rally at Shivaji Park on October 30, 1966.

It was at the Shivaji Park grounds, where Thackeray had addressed numerous political rallies including the annual Dusshera melawa and where the Shiv Sena- BJP government under Manohar Joshi was sworn in by then Governor P.C Alexander in 1995, that the Sena patriarch was cremated after his death on November 17, 2012.

"This is Balasaheb's first death anniversary after we joined the government and also after the Kalyan Dombivali civic polls," noted a Sena leader, adding that these developments had brought some cheer to the party.

"We expect that lakhs of Shiv Sainiks from Maharashtra and even outside the state will come to the Shivteerth (as the Shivaji Park is referred to by the party faithful) to take darshan of the shaktisthal," he said.

"The party has failed to construct a memorial or statue for Balasaheb even on his third death anniversary. This is a clear failure," lamented a Shiv Sainik, noting that Thackeray Sr had enjoyed pre-eminence in Mumbai's politics during his lifetime. The Shiv Sainik, however, added that the party was on track in its strategy to capture the anti-BJP, non-Congress political space.

"The other problem with the party is the fixation around Mumbai, and more specifically, the BMC," the Sainik explained, adding that it could not afford to neglect its base in the rural areas in case it wanted to come to power on its own.

However, the real and immediate challenge for the Sena is retaining power in the cash-rich BMC in the 2017 elections, where it is likely to be challenged by the BJP.

"There is political confusion in the Shiv Sena cadre due to the party's strategy of being in power and occupying the opposition space," noted Surendra Jondhale, professor, department of civics and politics, University of Mumbai.

Referring to statements by Shiv Sena leaders that the BJP would be defeated in Maharashtra like in Bihar and the Sena would come to power if elections were held today, Jondhale pointed out that like in case of the BJP in Bihar, issues like opposition to Pakistan and fundamentalism would pay little political dividends to the Sena in Maharashtra. The Shiv Sena hence needed to change its political agenda to stay relevant.