‘Raj will continue to act as a spoiler to Sena-BJP combine’

Sharad Pawar, agriculture minister and chief of the Nationalist Congress Party, spoke to Team DNA in New Delhi for a free-wheeling chat, where he was candid on politics, drought and why Bal Thackeray is the best of friends and the worst of enemies.

Assembly polls are due in October; how do you assess the Congress-NCP’s prospects?
Well, the Congress-NCP has been in power in the state for the last 10 years, this brings about its own set of circumstances. This time around, it’s very difficult to predict the outcome of the polls. Maharashtra politics has, for a long time now, had four major parties — Congress, NCP, Shiv Sena and the BJP. But in this election, we expect several other factors to play up. While the Left parties and the various factions of Republican parties may make their mark in some areas, Raj Thackeray’s MNS is also expected to be a major factor, though his party would largely be limited to the role of a spoiler for the Sena-BJP combine. With all these different political factions emerging, and an expected anti-incumbency factor, it is difficult to predict the trend of this election.

Do you see the drought situation being a factor in these elections?
The drought will be a factor if rains do not appear in the next seven days, although the crop situation in Maharashtra is good as of now. The state’s reservoirs are full and the crop production has so far not been majorly affected. But if adequate rains don’t come in the next seven days, there is expected to be a serious problem in areas like Marathwada and Vidarbha. The unhappiness would naturally go against the establishment.

What is the shape of the Congress-NCP seat distribution in these elections going to be like?
Though the Congress party’s leadership has communicated its decision of jointly contesting the polls, certain Congress leaders at the state-level think that they should either contest on their own or the Congress should contest more seats than it did in the last assembly polls (last elections Congress contested 166 seats while NCP contested 122). I think a status quo should be maintained in as seat sharing.

The argument being made by some state level leaders is that the Lok Sabha poll resuts have shown Congress in a better position than the NCP, therefore they should be given more seats. I don’t agree. I feel that our performance was the same as in 2004, and yet in the 2004 Assembly elections, we did far better than the Congress. In fact, in terms of total votes polled by Congress and NCP in the 2009 General Elections, there is a difference of only .4% between the two. The Congress polled 19.8% of the votes, while we polled 19.4%. So we feel that the same ticket distribution as last time is valid.

What if Congress insists on a different distribution?
Then the entire alliance structure in the state will change. But remember Congress and NCP together have polled 39% of the vote while the Sena-BJP combine have polled 35%.

You and Bal Thackeray have had a nearly concurrent political career, what is your opinion?
Balasaheb is perhaps the only leader in the country who stands by what he says regardless of the consequences for his own party. He is the best of friends and the worst possible enemy. We have old ties but despite that throughout his political innings, Balasaheb never spared a chance to attack me politically. I also reciprocated but his way of attacking was much more effective. Having said that, the differences haven’t affected out personal ties. When my daughter Supriya filed her Rajya Sabha nomination, Balasaheb called me up as soon as the news was out. Without my asking for it he decided that no Shiv Sena candidate would be fielded against her. He said that he had seen my daughter since she was two years old, and there was no way he would put up a candidate against her.

You said that Raj Thackeray is expected to be a factor in these elections, how do you read him?
Raj Thackeray has appropriated his uncle’s style in toto. The way he makes his speeches, the issues he raises, even his gestures while addressing people are exactly like Balasaheb. Whereas Uddhav has adopted a sober approach. Unfortunately Uddhav’s sober approach doesn’t go down too well with some elements of Shiv Sena, many of whom have moved to the MNS.

We seem to be headed towards a drought-like situation, what is your management plan?
We have ample stocks of wheat and rice that can see us through for the next 13 months. Sugar and pulses are another issue altogether. The continuous rains in Brazil (the major producer of sugar beside India) have prevented harvesting of sugar there and so the supply in the international market has been hit.  For pulses, India has already imported almost 50% of the global pulses produce. We are big spoilers in the international grain market when we enter as buyers and not sellers. Thus prices are soaring there as well.