Pipelines do not make peace... people do

Professor of National Security Affairs at the National Defence University’s Near East South Asia Centre for Strategic Study Dr Gawdat Bahgat was at NMIMS, Vile Parle, for a talk on US foreign policy in the Middle East: Challenges and Opportunities. Excerpts of his interaction with dna’s Yogesh Pawar

It is widely acknowledged that it was US pressure that made India back off from the project to get piped gas from Iran. Many feel that apart from hurting Iran this was also done to keep the nuclear lobby in the US happy.
India is a growing economy with surging energy needs. It will have to look at one or the other options to fulfil those. I don’t think the Indian establishment was comfortable to see a pipeline bringing gas, on which the country would be dependent, coming from Pakistan given the mistrust. The situation in Afghanistan, too, is not one which inspired confidence. That more than any other reason has led to a rethink.

There are many who feel such pipeline could do a world of good for the region’s economy and, hence, peace.
(Laughs) Pipelines do not make peace. People do. Iranians are the best bargainers, so personally, I’ll be surprised if the pipeline is ever actually built. They will always want to add more conditions or costs at some stage making it a non-starter.

But will mere isolation of Iran work?
One understands that sanctions will hurt not only Iran but other countries like India and even US oil companies. And it is also true that most times sanctions don’t work and can even be counter-productive. But given that a war with Iran is not what the US wants, what other options are there? As Europe comes out of the financial crisis, oil prices will rise in the next two years. Hence, the pressure is that much more on the US to extract an assurance from Iran on non-proliferation by then.

Why does the US establishment go after Iran so much over proliferation while its approach to North Korea on the same is more guarded.
North Korea for all practical purposes has already made a nuclear bomb so there is little the US can do, but Iran can still be stopped. It is unfortunate that the Iranians are trying to emulate North Korea.

Are the close ties between the US and India an indication of how geo-political and geo-strategic narratives in the Persian Gulf, South Asia and South East Asia have shifted for good?
Given its strategic location and the historical close ties it has with most nations in the Middle East, including Iran and Israel, and its strategic partnership with the US, India will have an increasingly large role to play in global affairs. In fact, it could be critical in getting the Arabs and Israel to talk.

Saudi Arabia’s new Nitaqat policy will hit other nationals, especially Indians employed there. Do you see this catching on as a trend across the Middle East?
Despite the occasional nationalist surge like the present one, given the sheer numbers and kinds of jobs Indians are doing in the region, it seems unlikely that the Middle East, and even Saudi Arabia, can do way with Indians for a long time to come. I can understand a country like Qatar has fewer people and needs to import its workforce, but Saudi Arabia has nearly 25 million people and I’m always surprised that so few work.