Will Ramdas Athavale hold the key in local polls?

The political churning in state politics, with the Republican Party of India (RPI) moving closer to the Shiv Sena and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), has got the Congress and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) worried about its main vote bank. On the other hand, the Sena-BJP combine, which is in doldrums, is hoping that the RPI will infuse fresh life into its cadre. The upcoming local body elections in the state are thus turning into mini general elections, considering the manner in which parties have started preparations a year in advance.

Keeping aside the poll politics, the issue which needs to be analysed is what the worth of RPI(A) chief Ramdas Athavale in Maharashtra is. In the 1970s and ‘80s, he was a youth icon among Dalits. He could bring Mumbai to a standstill with his fiery manner. Over the years, however, he has been reduced to a puppet in the hands of NCP chief Sharad Pawar. The Congress and the NCP have often exploited his leadership to keep their Dalit vote base intact.

The turning point for Athavale was the 2009 general election. He saw his defeat from the Shirdi constituency as a betrayal by the Congress. His decision to sever ties with the secular parties and join the opposition is to avenge this betrayal. But the basic question is whether he can deliver.

If he can swing votes in favour of the saffron parties, it will certainly hit the Congress hard. The NCP, which always took Athavale’s support for granted, is already propping up alternative Dalit leaders to divide voters. The ruling combine is strategically engineering defections within the RPI(A).

Besides, there are at least nine major Dalit parties headed by individuals who cannot see eye to eye with each other even for the larger cause of the welfare of Dalits in the state. Prakash Ambedkar, leader of the Bharatiya Bahujan Mahasangh, has always maintained an anti-Congress stance. Political leadership in Vidarbha, where Dalits are a major force to reckon with, is splintered into various groups led by Ambedkar, Yogendra Kawade, RS Gavai, etc, and this has often benefited the Sena and the BJP.

A decade ago, there had been a serious attempt to bring Shiv Shakti and Bhim Shakti together. Despite repeated attempts, Athavale could never commit. He was worried about the communal tag. As he moves closer to the saffron parties today, he will have to answer many uncomfortable questions posed by his supporters. At the same time, he will also have to get a commitment out of the saffron brigade about putting Hindutva on the backburner. However, he will not be able to strike a hard bargain, as he himself is looking for an anchor. The Sena-BJP combine is looking to tap every anti-Congress force and is aware that Athavale lost the status of an unchallenged Dalit leader long ago. As such, only time will tell who has the last laugh.