In the thirteenth round (second quarter of FY11) of the Professional Forecasters’ survey conducted by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), forecasters expect the real GDP growth rate to be marginally higher at 8.5% in FY11 from 8.4% in the last survey.
The growth will be driven by increased agricultural growth and increased growth in services in the subsequent quarters, the survey said.
For FY12, the real GDP growth rate is expected to be 8.5%.
Median estimate for wholesale price index (WPI) inflation in the third quarter of FY11 is at 7.4%, which has been revised downwards from 8.1% in the last survey. Over the next ten years, WPI-based inflation is expected to be 5.5%, which is revised upwards from 5% in the last survey.
Broad money (M3) growth has been revised downwards to 17.5% in FY11 from the earlier forecast of 17.9%. In FY11, bank credit is expected to grow at the rate of 19% as against its previous forecast of 20%. In FY12, the broad
money growth and bank credit growth are expected to be 18.4% and 20%, respectively, said forecasters.
The proportion of domestic saving to GDP is indicated to be 34% in FY11 and this has been revised downwards from 34.7% earlier. For FY12, forecasters have predicted domestic savings at 35.3%.
Forecasters expect the end period repo rate to be at 6.50% in FY11, which is revised upwards from 6.25% in the last survey and the reverse repo rate to be at 5.50% in FY11, which is also revised upwards from 4.75% in the last survey. For FY12, the repo and reverse repo are predicted to be 6.75 % and 5.75%, respectively.
Fiscal deficit estimates have been revised at 5.3% of GDP in FY11, which is revised marginally upwards from 5.2% in the last survey. The combined gross fiscal deficit is placed at 8.3% of GDP in FY11, revised slightly upwards from 8.2% in the twelfth survey. For FY12, the fiscal deficit and combined gross fiscal deficit are expected to be 5% and 7.5% of GDP, respectively, the
survey said.
The profit growth of corporate sector in FY11 has been revised downwards to 20% from 22.5% in the last survey. For FY12, it is expected to be 23%.
Exports are expected to grow at 15.9% in FY11, which is revised upwards from 15% in the last survey. Imports are expected to grow by 19.7% in FY11, revised upwards from 17.9% in the last survey. For FY12, exports and imports are expected to grow at 15% and 15.7 %, respectively.
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