Mumbai: Weather pundits are not sanguine about the south west monsoon 2009, holding out only a "below normal" performance during the four months ending September.
On top of a poor precipitation during June with an all India deficiency in precipitation to the tune of 45% till the 17th, they have forecast that, in July too, which is crucial from the point of kharif sowing, rainfall is likely to be only 93% of the long period average for the month.
This is purely in a quantitative sense. If this patchy showing is accompanied by ill-distributed rains, temporally and spatially, agricultural operations would have commenced on a less than promising note for the current year.
If the monsoon forecast comes true -- one hopes that, at the very least, the margin of error is on the positive side -- the entire four-month season from June to September may be a victim of maverick rains.
Based on a six-parameter ensemble, the second stage prediction is that, for the entire country, rainfall is expected to be 93% of the long period average of 890 mm. The margin of error is +/- 4%.
During July too, the quantum of rainfall is put at the same level, but with a higher error margin of +/- 9%.
But, in August, which too witnesses hectic activity on the fields with both sowings and transplanting undertaken in different regions, weathermen hold out a more reassuring prospect -- namely, that the rains may be 101% of the long period average of 262 mm.
Given the continental dimensions of India, IMD has attempted to gauge what the monsoon scenario will be like in the four geographical divisions of the country this time also.
Here too, what it has to convey is not much to be happy about. All the regions will experience deficient rains during the four months ending September, with northwest India faring badly in this respect with a precipitation of only 81% of the long period average of 612 mm and central India much better of with a projected 99% of its long period average of 994 mm.
In the northeast and southern peninsula, the news is bad in that both may record rains well below their respective long period averages.
Unlike the all-India forecast, the assessment for July and August is based on principle component regression model and that for the geographical regions is based on multiple linear regression model; this explains the varying error margins of these projections.
In its first stage forecast issued in April, IMD had indicated a near normal monsoon of rainfall of 96% of the long period average with an error margin of +/- 5%.
Thus, the latest scenario, which is based on a more elaborate model, paints a somewhat bleak picture of south west monsoon during 2009.
But, the limitation of this analysis is that it is purely quantitative. What matters from the agricultural point of view is the spread of rains across regions and over time. Thus, even with a deficient precipitation, opportune showers can do a lot to change the fortunes on the farm front.
Still, the fact remains that Indian agriculture is, as the time-worn cliché goes, is a gamble in the rains. Kharif remains the principal crop season accounting for more than half of the foodgrains output and for a sizable share of many commercial crops.
More important, as much as 86% of rice is harvested during the kharif season and nearly 78% of oilseeds. Many other crops are largely, if not entirely, kharif.


