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ShareThe south west monsoon has come to its traditional end -- though it is yet to bid adieu totally from the Indian subcontinent -- with one of the worst performance in recent times both in terms of quantum of rainfall and its spatial and temporal distribution.
According to the India Meteorological Department, the country as a whole, had received a total precipitation of 690 mm during the four months ending September 2009, as against the normal of 892 mm for this period. Thus, the deficiency was of the order of 23% -- a shortfall which is the highest since 1972 when it was 24% below normal.
Compounding this poor showing was the fact that, in terms of spread over regions and over time, the monsoon was very erratic. As many as 23 out of the 36 meteorological subdivisions reported deficient rains -- that is, 20% or less than the normal -- and only 13 had boasted of excess or normal rains, during the June to September period.
In fact, a week-by-week analysis reveals that right from the first week of June till the very end, the quantity of rainfall was always below the long period average and in some weeks, the deficiency was more than 40%.
As the season progressed, there were showers that reduced the extent of this deficiency but never in sufficient amounts to record a excess or even normal rains, with the closest to being in the normal range occurring during the weeks ending July 22 and July 29. Despite some rallies in August and September, the monsoon performance was a big disappointment.
Spatially too, the monsoon was a let-down. In north west India, the deficiency was 36%, in north east India 27% and in Central India 20%. The southern Peninsula had fared better with a shortfall of just 4% in relation to normal but, sustained monsoon activity was missing.
From the agricultural point of view, the behaviour of the monsoon was below par. Rains during June and July which are crucial to sowing were patchy while wayward monsoon subsequently had affected the healthy growth of crops.
Coverage of kharif crops was below the normal, with rice, the main crop, worst affected. Some six million hectares were left unsown under this crop while delayed and poor rains had impacted transplantation. A setback of at least ten million tonnes is feared in rice alone. Groundnut may witness a similar fate as also pulses and coarse grains.
In order to make good the kharif loss, an additional output of 8 million tonnes of foodgrains and of 1.2 million tonnes of oilseeds is planned.
But whether this will fructify, only time will tell. But the point is that, Indian agriculture is still critically dependant on the south west monsoon. This year's monsoon is both a reminder and a waning -- to make farming drought-proof to the maximum extent possible and in the shortest span of time.
