You have talked about the ‘Japan syndrome’ driving up prices of food worldwide. Could you explain...
If countries are already densely populated when they begin to industrialise rapidly, three things happen in quick succession to make them heavily dependent on grain imports: grain consumption climbs as incomes rise, grainland area shrinks, and grain production falls. As grain production falls, the country has to resort to importing grain. I first observed this phenomenon in Japan, which now imports 70% of its grain, and hence termed it the Japan syndrome.
And now the Japan syndrome is spreading beyond Japan?
China is now gradually falling victim to the Japan syndrome, and that is clearly worrying. Perhaps the most alarming recent world agricultural event is the precipitous fall in China’s grain production since 1998. After an impressive climb from 90 million tonnes in 1950 to a peak of 392 million tonnes in 1998, China’s grain harvest fell in four of the last five years, dropping to 322 million tonnes in 2003. For perspective, this decline of 70 million tonnes exceeds the entire grain harvest of Canada.
China is losing grainland to expanding deserts and it is faced with spreading water shortages that are shrinking the grain harvest. China’s population of 1.3 billion is impressive, but even more impressive is the fact that 1.193 billion of them live in 46% of the country. The five sprawling provinces of Tibet, Qinghai, Xinjiang, Gansu, and Inner Mongolia, have only 81 million people - just 6% of the national total. Thus industrial and residential construction and the land paved for roads, highways, and parking lots will be concentrated in less than half the country, where 94% of the people live. People are crowded in this region simply because this is where arable land and water are.
If China had Japan’s automobile ownership rate of one car for every two people, it would have a fleet of 640 million, a forty-fold increase from the 16 million today. Such a fleet would require paving almost 13 million hectares of land — again, most of it likely cropland. This figure is equal to two thirds of China’s 21 million hectares of riceland — land that produces 120 million tonnes of rice — the country’s principal staple food.
Very scary...
Yes it is. The obvious question now is which other countries will enter a period of declining grain production because of the same combination of forces? Among those that come to mind are India, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Egypt, and Mexico.
You have projected Plan B as a way out of this mess....
Plan B is the alternative to business as usual. Its goal is to move the world from the current decline and collapse path onto a new path where food security can be restored and civilisation can be sustained. It has four components: cutting net carbon dioxide emissions 80% by 2020, stabilising population at 8 billion or lower, eradicating poverty, and restoring the earth’s natural systems, including its soils, aquifers, forests, grasslands, and fisheries. Plan B essentially outlines a transition from an economy powered mainly by oil, coal, and natural gas to one powered largely by wind, solar, and geothermal energy.
The Plan B goal of stabilising population is set at 8 billion or lower simply because I do not think world population will ever reach the 9.2 billion projected by UN demographers for 2050. To begin with, the vast majority of the 2.4 billion people projected to be added by 2050 will be born in developing countries—countries where the land and water resource base is deteriorating and hunger is spreading. Simply put, many support systems in these countries are already in decline, and some are collapsing.
The question is not whether population growth will come to a halt before reaching 9.2 billion but whether it will do so because the world shifts quickly to smaller families or because it fails to do so—and population growth is checked by rising mortality. Plan B embraces the reduced fertility option. Eradicating poverty is a priority goal for three reasons. One, in combination with giving women everywhere access to reproductive health care and family planning services, it is the key to accelerating the global shift to smaller families.
It also helps bring impoverished nations into the international community, giving them a stake in such matters as stabilising climate. When people are not sure where their next meal is coming from, it is difficult for them to get excited about trying to stabilise the earth’s climate. And third, eradicating poverty is the humane thing to do. One of the hallmarks of a civilised society is the capacity to care about others
The fourth component of Plan B involves repairing and protecting the natural systems that support humankind. This includes conserving soil, banning deforestation, promoting reforestation, restoring fisheries, and making a worldwide effort to protect aquifers by raising water productivity. Unless we can reverse the deterioration of these systems we are unlikely to reverse the rise in hunger.
So what’s the key challenge?
The question we face is not what we need to do, because that seems rather clear to those who are analysing the global situation. The challenge is how to do it in the time available. Unfortunately we don’t know how much time remains. Nature is the timekeeper but cannot see the clock. In conclusion let me paraphrase a comment made by environmentalist Paul Hawken. In recognising the enormity of the challenge facing us, he said: First we need to decide what needs to be done. Then we do it. And then we ask if it is possible.
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