"Climate change could exert devastating impact on growth and productivity of several crops, particularly the food grain crops," said Kesavan of the MS Swaminathan Research Foundation. He said agriculture in India had always been a "gamble with monsoon" and millions of poor farmers did not have the resources to cope with the uncertainty of monsoons.
Tough choices
Analysts say agricultural economics need to improve significantly to retain farmers like Jaswinder Singh, who handed over his farm to a tenant and works in New Delhi. But this is not easy in a country where inflation is always an election issue and a state government was voted out because onion prices soared.
"This is a million-dollar issue," said Bhaumik, the economist. "If you want to make farming more profitable, the price for farm products needs to be more remunerative. Will the middle class accept this?"
He said the government may have to allow genetically modified crops in order to improve farm revenue. "I think they will have to allow it. There are limitations on the supply side. Productivity improvement is the crux of the issue. That is why we need to have an understanding of GM foods. You have a crisis at hand," he said.
India so far has allowed genetically modified seeds only for cotton, which has boosted productivity, but use of such seeds for edible crops has always evoked strong protests.
Last month, a government panel recommended commercial cultivation of genetically modified brinjal (a type of eggplant), evoking sharp protests and a quick clarification from the government.
"Strong views have already been expressed on the Bt-Brinjal issue, both for and against. My objective is to arrive at a careful, considered decision in the public and national interest," environment minister Jairam Ramesh said in a statement last month.
Bhagirath Choudhary, a New Delhi-based representative of the International Service for the Acquisition of Agribiotech Application, said the case for using genetically modified seeds was compelling.
"You cannot do without this technology in agriculture – even today, and more so in the future. We are unable to increase the production because productivity is not being increased," he said.
Others are not convinced.
"My personal view is that it has so far been more glorified for what it has delivered. It is commerce-driven, more than science-based," said Kesavan of the MS Swaminathan Research Foundation. "Time is ripe now to have a large-scale brainstorming on the social, environmental and economic impact of GM crops on resource-poor, small and marginal farmers."
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