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IIP shows recovery no flash in the pan

Published: Tuesday, Oct 13, 2009, 3:57 IST
By S Gangadharan | Place: Mumbai | Agency: DNA

Powered by a double-digit growth in all the three sectors — mining, manufacturing and electricity — as well as a jump of over 8% in all the four use-based groupings, the index of industrial production recorded a robust rise of 10.4% during August 2009 on a year-on-year basis.

While the low base effect — in August 2008, factory output was up by 1.7% — no doubt exaggerated the spurt, the good showing virtually across the board now suggests that the recovery may not be a flash in the pan.

For April-August 2009, the average growth was faster at 5.8% than the rate of 4.8% during the same period last year. Besides, out of the 17 industries at the two-digit level of classification, seven registered an increase in production of 8% or more thus far as compared with three a year ago, while the number of industries with a negative growth is down to four from seven.

During August 2009, the incremental leap in manufacturing output was 10.2% as compared with 1.7% during the same month of 2008; in mining it was 12.9% (2.8%) and in electricity 10.6% (0.8%). Intermediate goods was a stellar performer with a spurt of 14.3%, followed by basic goods (10.0%) and capital goods (8.3%).

But, in the case of consumer goods, the trend was mixed; while consumer durables output was up by a vigorous 22.3%, the momentum in the consumer non-durables segment fell to nearly half of what it was last year - 3.7% as compared with 7.3%. In overall terms, the consumer goods industry grew by 8.5% as against 6.4% a year ago.

Among the three sectors, the average growth rate during the first five months of 2009-10 was pronounced in both mining and electricity vis-a-vis last year but rather subdued in the manufacturing segment where the spurt was 5.5% so far this fiscal as compared with 5.1% in 2008-09.

Of the use-based groups, capital goods and consumer goods were laggards, but basic goods and intermediate goods fared well. The growth rate dwindled to 3.2% from 8.3% in capital goods and to 3.1% from 7.6% in consumer goods; in basic goods, there was an acceleration to 6.7% from 3.7% and in intermediate goods to 9.2% from 1%.

Industries that have fared well during April-August 2009 in terms of incremental production rate include machinery & equipment (9.5%), transport equipment (9.1%), rubber, plastic & allied industries (13.2%), and wood & wood products (11.8%). Growth was sluggish in food products (-12.6%), metal products (-0.2%), cotton textiles (0.7%), paper (2.7%) and leather (1.3%).

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