Even as export growth clawed back into positive territory in November, imports too have suddenly perked up, led by oil.
After 31% in September and 15% in October, import decline narrowed to just 2.5% in November, according to figures released on Friday. Oil imports crept up 7% in November to $6.4 billion after a year of decline, while non-oil imports hit a peak of $16.5 billion in the month, higher than all the other months of the year.
Oil imports had started declining from December 2008 on the back of a sharp correction in global crude oil prices, while non-oil imports started declining in January this year. The government also confirmed its earlier statement that exports have jumped around 20% in November, with the new numbers showing an increase of 18.2%.
However, all numbers, whether of imports or exports, continue to be considerably lower than what they were during early and mid 2008.
For example, exports were in the $15-20 billion per month range before the recession began in October last year. Even as November posted an exports growth, the total was just $13.2 billion.
Imports too have a long way to go before they catch up with last year’s numbers. For example, non-oil imports, which peaked at $16.5 billion in November, typically ranged between $16 billion and $22 billion during the second half of 2008.
The decline in imports has also favourably impacted India’s balance of trade numbers. Trade deficit for the current financial year is down 35% to $66 billion against $100 billion during the same period last year.
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