Drought may stall food security act

The drought situation, which has gripped nearly half of the country, could delay the government’s ambitious plans to ensure early food security for all citizens, economists and analysts said.

The enactment of the proposed food security act that promises food for all is likely to be delayed by at least a year, agriculture minister Sharad Pawar recently said.

The proposal to extend food security, especially for more than 6.5 crore people living below poverty line, and another 12 crore above the poverty line, is considered to be fraught with problems, particularly in the backdrop of the drought situation.

“Lot of consultations are required under food security law. We would like to call on chief ministers also. Now we are preparing the draft. It will take another 12 months at least to finalise the food security draft after consulting everyone,” Pawar told reporters last week.

The government had proposed to legalise food security and provide 25 kg food grains per month to every below poverty line family at Rs 3 per kg and 10-35 kg grains to every above poverty line family.

President Pratibha Patil, in her speech to a joint session of Parliament at the start of the Budget session, had promised implementation of the food security act.

Rough estimates show the government will have to ensure availability of nearly 20 million tonnes of foodgrain every year to ensure continuity of the scheme for BPL families alone.

At a recent meeting between Pawar and state food ministers, called to discuss failed monsoon and rising food prices, demands were made for increased food grain allocations, state ministers said.

This is likely to add pressure on the government’s food stocks.

“States’ demand for food grains is justified as poverty in a drought year would be beyond broad qualifications under the public distribution system,” said Jayati Ghosh, professor, Centre for Economic Studies and Planning, Jawaharlal Nehru University.
“States, which will have to implement the food security act, know that many families classified as above poverty line would need to be sheltered under the act,” she said.
India currently has a stockpile of 25.3 mt of wheat and 32.6 mt of rice, which the government claims is sufficient to meet the nation’s food requirements for the next 13 months.

The country last year produced a record 99.4 mt of rice and 77.63 mt of wheat, boosting total food grain production to 229.85 mt.

Economists feel that in the aftermath of the current drought, government will need to seriously rethink on ways to identify true beneficiaries and devise ways and means to procure enough food grains under the new scheme.

Indicus Analytics, an economic research and analysis group, sees a major reduction in rice and sugarcane output, assuming a bad crop this year and likelihood of weak monsoon even next year. “This year or next year, we see problems with the government’s rice procurement. Beyond the next couple of months till the current stocks last, the government will need to focus on improving late summer and rabi production of paddy,” said Laveesh Bhandari, director.

Commodities market research group Takshashila Academia of Economic Research sees the government stocks at comfortable levels, but not good enough to combat the food needs during a drought year. “Even huge buffer stock may not compensate for likely food shortage in the market. There are enough incentives for paddy growers, but availability of standing water, a must for the crop, may not be available in rabi season,” said Nilanjan Ghosh, senior VP and head of the research group.

Crisil economist Dharmakirti Joshi said poor rains will result in a drop in farm output and definitely shave off some part of gross domestic produce this year. “An exact computation of the shortfall will be based on rainfall figures by end-September,” he said. NW18