IMD has said that there are 33% chances that rainfall will be deficient this Monsoon, i.e. below 90%. Indian agriculture is largely dependant on monsoons for its water requirements higher probability of El Nino means that rainfall is going to be deficient this year as well.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) released it's first forecast for this year. They have predicted that rainfall from June to September will be below normal. IMD has also forecast a 70% probability of El Nino this year. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology has declared that we are heading into a major El Nino event.
According to IMD, rainfall between 90-96% of long period model average (LPMA) is classified as "below normal." IMD further said that there are 33% chances that rainfall will be deficient this Monsoon, i.e. below 90%.
What is El Nino?
El Nino occurs when the surface waters warm up. It takes place in the entire equatorial zone of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. It affects wind patters and triggers droughts and floods worldwide.
This weather condition lasts for about a year.
How did El Nino get its name?
El Nino is a Spanish word that means 'the child'. It is a name given to warm waters that appeared around Christmas time off the west coast of South America.
La Nina, the girl child is the opposite phase of El Nino. It is a cold phase which brings more productivity in the eastern Pacific ocean and more rain to the western Pacific. It often brings a bountiful monsoon to India.
How El Nino impacts India?
The prediction of El Nino event has already left Indians worried about a dry spell or worse.
This is not good news for India's agricultural sector. The agricultural sector is already suffering from unseasonal rains and crop damage.
The IMD has predicted a deficient monsoon, around 93% of the overall average. On the contrary Skymet, a private forecaster predicts that El Nino's effect is still very limited and will not have a major impact on India's monsoon.
Why should India be worried?
IMD has said that rainfall will be below 90% this Monsoon. Indian agriculture is largely dependant on monsoons for its water requirements. Higher probability of El Nino means that rainfall is going to be deficient this year as well.
Therefore, the impact on food prices and consequently, inflation, cannot be ruled out. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), in its first bi-monthly monetary policy this year stated, "There are upside risks to the central projection (of inflation) emanating from possible intensification of el niño conditions leading to a less than normal monsoon; large deviations in vegetable and fruit prices from their regular seasonal patterns, given unseasonal rains; larger than anticipated administered price revisions; faster closing of the output gap; geo-political developments leading to hardening of global commodity prices; and spillover from external developments through exchange rate and asset price channels.
However, at this juncture, these upside risks appear to be offset by 4 downsides originating from global deflationary/disinflationary tendencies, the still soft outlook on global commodity prices; and slack in the domestic economy."
El Nino
Impact on India
- 20% drop in rainfall seen in some El Nino years
- 10% rain deficit in six of previous 10 El Nino years
- 18% drop in sugarcane output in 2010, the last weather pattern year
- 15% drop in monsoon rainfall in 2002 and 2009
- 10% decrease in summer-crop output during the two years
- 90% of all El Nino's since 1880 have caused below-normal rainfall
- 65% have resulted in droughts
Crisil, too, has noted that a normal monsoon is crucial to push India's economic growth forward. Japanese investment bank, Nomura, has warned that El Nino conditions could push up food prices in India.
The MET department predicted 95% rainfall last year but the actual rainfall was only 88%.
This resulted in soaring prices of onions and potatoes. Even the fruit prices grew by 23.17% along with vegetables which rose by 15.27%.
Food inflation in the month of June last year fell by 7.9% which was caused mainly due to deficient monsoons. It also resulted in delayed sowing.
The major challenges that Indian agriculture sector faced was low productivity levels and soil degradation.
In 2009 El Nino brought the worst drought in four decades to India. It damaged the crops across Asia which resulted in surging food prices.
It completely affected the agricultural production and had an adverse impact on the economy of India.
El Nino directly impacts the Indian economy and increases domestic food prices. It lowers the production of Indian crops such as rice, sugarcane, corn, cotton and oilseeds.
Agriculture contributes to around 14% to the Indian economy which then leads to high inflation and low gross domestic growth.
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