Rupee may slip marginally if Greek tragedy unfolds: Raghuram Rajan

India is unlikely to be hit by the Greece crisis as the direct exposure to the country is very limited and forex reserves are robust enough to prevent a mayhem in the markets.

Trying to soothe fears of any Greek tragedy playing out in India, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) governor Raghuram Rajan on Thursday said the direct exposure of India to Greece remains "very very" limited. "Greece crisis will result in an initial burst of volatility. Foreign exchange buffers are fairly reasonable," Rajan said.

India's forex reserves are at a record high of $355 billion.

Jamal Mecklai, chief executive officer, Mecklai Financial Services, told dna, the Greece crisis will have minimal impact on India, unless there is a major mayhem in global markets, which is unlikely. "But the major worry is when the US will hike interest rates. Even a negative vote in the July 5 referendum may not impact. If the jobs data, which is expected tomorrow, is encouraging, there is a chance that that US Federal Reserve may be keen to hike rates."

"India's direct exposure to Greece is very limited, the exposure is only via exchange rates. Greece is an evolving situation. Untoward development in Greece could lead to risk-off trade," he said.

Greece became the first developed country to default on the International Monetary Fund (IMF) payment, when it failed to pay an installment of $1.8 billion by June 30. Now the country will have referendum on July 5 when the European nation will decide on the bailout proposals from its creditors.

Jayesh Mehta, managing director and treasurer, Bank of America, said he does not expect any long- term impact on the Indian markets. "Greece default may have a limited impact on India as there would be an initial volatility which will settle down. So far, the Indian rupee has held on very well," he told dna.

Bankers say that a negative vote could increase the possibility of Greece exiting from the euro zone altogether.

"The direct impact from Greece is limited. Our sense is that after the initial burst of volatility, investors will start differentiating, and they will see that the India story continues to be a good one. We not only have good macro-policies in place but growth prospects are quite healthy as compared with the rest of the world," he said.

Despite the Greek crisis, Jamal said the rupee has remained stable, and in fact gained against the euro. The rupee has remained flat against the dollar this week. Against the euro, the rupee has gained over 1% this week, taking its year-to-date gains to nearly 16%. The euro weakened against major global currencies this year due to the $1.2 trillion stimulus programme from the European Central Bank, aggravated by the Greece crisis.