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Room for RBI to cut rates in 2nd half of FY17, experts say

In the third bi-monthly monetary policy review on August 9, RBI left key policy rates unchanged.

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Terming the RBI's move to maintain status quo in its monetary policy as "predictable", experts today expressed hope that the central bank would cut repo rate in the second half of the fiscal, taking cues from moderate inflation and the government's reform initiatives.

Reserve Bank's decision to leave policy interest rates unchanged today was no surprise to market participants, in line with transparent and predictable monetary policy, Moody's Investors Service said in a statement.

"In the next few months, we expect continuity in the RBI's policymaking. We do not expect RBI's shift to such a structure to have any significant implications for the conduct of monetary policy," said Marie Diron, Senior Vice President, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody's Investors Service.

Reserve Bank Governor Raghuram Rajan today left interest rates unchanged in his last monetary policy review as inflation hit near 2-year high but said the central bank's stance remains "accommodative".

Expecting "upside" risk to his March inflation target of 5 per cent due to pay hike of central government employees following the 7th Pay Commission and sticky core inflation, which excludes food and fuel, he kept benchmark repurchase rate at 5-year low of 6.50 per cent.

The larger than average monsoon rainfall will help maintain moderate food price inflation, contributing to keeping headline inflation within or close to target this year, Moody's said.

SBI Chairman Arundhati Bhattacharya said, "The RBI's decision to maintain status quo was as per market expectations. The decision to frontload liquidity provisions through an announcement of Open Market Operations (OMO) is a well thought out move as capital flows have been relatively slow this year given the global uncertainties, resulting in lower net foreign exchange acquisition."

"We believe transmission of rates will happen gradually over the next few months as credit growth picks up pace," she added.

Yes Bank CEO & MD Rana Kapoor said, "In the coming months, the disinflationary impact will be upheld by a favourable monsoon and structural policy reforms instituted by the government." 

Commenting on the policy on Tuesday, ICICI Bank CEO & MD Chanda Kocchar, said, "The decision to keep the policy rate unchanged is in line with market expectations. The articulation of a continued accommodative policy stance is welcome.

"As stated in its April policy, the RBI has ensured adequate liquidity and brought the liquidity balance closer to neutrality, which is indeed commendable. The favourable monsoons and the momentum in policy reforms like the Goods & Services Tax augur well for the economy going forward.” 

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