Twitter
Advertisement

Met’s July forecast 98% rains, actual 87%

Kharif sowings in terms of coverage and pace have been greatly handicapped as a result, ruling out the possibility of a bumper agricultural year, or even a repeat of the farm performance during 2011-12.

Latest News
article-main
FacebookTwitterWhatsappLinkedin

The southwest monsoon has entered its final half on a very disappointing note. On top of an indifferent spell in June, July too witnessed, for the most part and for most of the regions an inadequate and ill-distributed rains, leaving an overall shortfall of 13% in relation to the normal of 289 mms for the month.

Kharif sowings in terms of coverage and pace have been greatly handicapped as a result, ruling out the possibility of a bumper agricultural year, or even a repeat of the farm performance during 2011-12.

Real time data reveal that, during July 2012, the actual precipitation was 250.5 mms as against the forecast of 283.8 mm (that is, 98% of the long period average), with a model error of 9%.

Thus, the lower end of the forecast by the India Meteorological Department worked out to 257.4 mm, but the volume was even less during the current monsoon season.  Surely, the Met must be red-faced as, once again, their forecast has proved to be off the mark.

With the precipitation during June 2012 being only 71% of the normal and with the monsoon active only by fits and starts in July, even though the quantum was 87% of the long period average, the cumulative picture makes a depressing reading. Rainfall for the period, June 1 to July 31, was 81% of the normal for these two months.

Only in the east and northeast region, was the deficit rather low
at 10% of the normal, with Central India also lucky with a shortfall
of only 15%.

But northwest India had to contend with an indifferent monsoon in the first two months, with the rains a whopping 36% below normal – though the high irrigation cover in Punjab and Haryana will help minimise the damage caused by erratic rains – while in the south Peninsula, the gap between the actual rains received and the long period average was a hefty 23%.

The gravity of the crisis that is now unfolding on the farm front is evident from the fact, during the two months ending July 2012, no meteorological subdivision had boasted of excess rainfall – last year, this number was seven – while only 16 were blessed with normal rainfall (22 a year ago); thus far, divisions with deficient precipitation were 16 as against only seven last year
and scanty rains were received in four divisions as compared to nil in 2011.

In regard to distribution, the behaviour of the monsoon during the past two months contrasts sharply with the experience of the preceding year.

During this season rains were in excess or normal in only 44% of the geographical area; in 2011, this proportion was as high as 63 per cent. Now, deficient rains have characterised 44% of the land area and scanty rains for 12%, while last year, this figure was a mere 17%.

Taking note of the trend in sowings and water levels in major reservoirs – and in the light of the lacklustre monsoon – a setback to both kharif and rabi harvest is likely; in the previous season, both had scaled new peaks – 129.94 million tonnes of foodgrains during the kharif season and 127.50 million tonnes during the rabi season – so that food output was an impressive 257.44 million tonnes. The hopes of a repeat of this performance have been dashed and the Centre is in fact, contemplating a contingency plan to salvage the summer crops and ensure a better rabi outcome.

From the latest data, which pertain to the third week of July 2012, water – a critical input – availability may fall short of requirements. Most states have reported a less than normal storage levels. According to the Central Water Commission, the storage levels in 84 major reservoirs monitored by it, are 59% lower than the position a year ago and by a staggering 74% below the full reservoir level.  This makes a bountiful monsoon in the current month crucial for both replenishing the water resources as well as give a big boost to sowings that are also undertaken in a big way during the coming weeks.

Thus far, sowings have been rather slow and the acreage nowhere near what It was for most of the kharif crops.  According to official data, till July 20, rice area is down 3.4% in relation to the year ago, coarse grains 24.7% and pulses  31.4% and all food crops 19.1$. A shortfall in area under oilseeds and cotton is also reported.

Agriculture may have acquired a degree of resilience from weather-induced aberrations and may also account for a  diminishing share in the gross domestic product but, farming is still a gamble in the rains; also, judging by the latest fiasco, only baby steps seem to have been made in perfecting the forecasting techniques in regard to the south west monsoon.
 

Rainfall from June 1 to July 31,2012 (mms)
Region                        Actual        Normal           Actual as % of normal
East & North East India                                               707.5                    786.6                         90
North West India                                                         184.1                    287.6                          64
Central India                                                                 413.7                    488.0                          85
South Peninsula                                                           291.8                    378.3                         77
Country as a whole                                                     366.0                     452.4                         81
Data for chart: Rainfall in July (mms)
2002          146.2
2003          317.8
2004          242.1
2005          334.1
2006          287.6
2007          286.2
2008          244.9
2009          280.6
2010          300.7
2011          247.2
2012          250.5

Box: Rainfall situation- a micro view as of July 31,2012
Normal ( -19% to +19% of long period average)  :

Arunachal, Assam & Meghalaya, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim, Jharkhand, East UP, Orissa, Madhya Pradesh, Konkan & Goa, Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh, Anndaman & Nicobar, Andhra Pradesh and Lakshadweep

Deficient ( -20% to -59% of LPA
Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura, Gangetic West Bengal, Bihar, West UP, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir, East Rajasthan, Gujarat Region, Madya Maharashtra, Marathwada, Karnataka, Kerala and Tamilnadu & Pondicherry
Scanty (-60% or less of LPA)

Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi, Punjab, West Rajasthan and Saurashtra & Kutch

 

Find your daily dose of news & explainers in your WhatsApp. Stay updated, Stay informed-  Follow DNA on WhatsApp.
Advertisement

Live tv

Advertisement
Advertisement