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India's economic growth rate in 2012-13 pegged lowest in a decade

Thursday, 7 February 2013 - 12:18pm IST | Place: New Delhi | Agency: PTI

This estimate by CSO is drastically lower than what has been projected thus far by the government and RBI.

India's economic growth rate this fiscal is estimated to be sharply lower at 5%, lowest in a decade, on account of poor performance of manufacturing, agriculture and services sector.

This estimate by CSO is drastically lower than what has been projected thus far by the government and RBI.

"The growth in GDP (Gross Domestic Product) during 2012-13 is estimated at 5% as compared to a growth rate of 6.2% in 2011-12," according to the Advanced Estimates released today by the Central Statistical Organisation (CSO).

In 2002-03, the GDP had grown at 4%. Since then the Indian economy has been expanding at over 6%, the highest rate being 9.6% in 2006-07.

CSO's advance estimate lowered the growth in agriculture and allied activities to 1.8% in 2012-13, compared to 3.6% 2011-12.

Manufacturing growth is also expected to drop to 1.9% in this fiscal, from 2.7% last year.

The CSO's GDP growth projection is a lower than the 5.5% forecast made by the Reserve Bank in its quarterly monetary policy review last week.

In its mid-year Economic Review, the government had also estimated growth ranging from 5.7-5.9%. The current estimate is a sharply lower than the 7.6% growth projection for 2012-13 made by government in Budget.

The latest estimate of 5% for the entire fiscal means that the pace of economic expansion has slowed sharply in the second half of 2012-13, given that GDP growth in the April-September period stood at 5.4%.

According to the advance estimates, the services sector including finance, insurance, real estate and business services sectors are likely to grow by 8.6% this fiscal, against 11.7% last fiscal.

However the growth in the mining and quarrying is likely be slightly better at 0.4%, compared to contraction of growth of 0.6% a year ago.

Growth in construction is also likely to be 5.9% in 2012-13, against 5.6% last year.

According to the CSO's advance estimates, growth in electricity, gas and water production is likely to decline to 4.9% in 2012-13, from 6.5% in 2011-12.

During the current fiscal, the trade, hotel, transport and communication sectors are projected to grow by 5.2%, as against 7% last fiscal.

Community social and personal services growth however would be slightly better at 6.8%, compared to 6% in previous fiscal.

Overall, the 5% growth in the advanced estimates is lower than what experts have been forecasting.

Yesterday, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) had said that the Indian economy would grow by 5.4% in 2012-13, but should pick up to 6% in next fiscal.

The Indian economy had expanded by 8.4% in both 2010-11 and 2009-10, while growth in 2008-09 was 6.7%.

The advance GDP estimates are released by the CSO before the end of a financial year to enable the government to formulate various estimates for inclusion in the Budget. PTI

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