According to the Crisil report, "Credit growth does not sync with the sharp pick-up in GDP growth now shown for this fiscal. Credit growth is expected to potter around at 12-14% compared with 14.3% as of fiscal 2014-end."
India's statistic office's decision to change in base year to 2011-12 for all future macroeconomic data calculations has made India the fastest growing big economy in the world.
As per the new data, India's gross domestic product, or the sum total of all goods and services produced in the country grew by 6.9% a year ago and is projected at 7.4% for the current year ending March 31, 2015.
Industry and analysts, however, are taking this new information with a pinch of salt.
HDFC Bank, in a report said, ""The (GDP) data released yesterday has only added to the confusion that already exists."
ING Vysya Bank said: "The high growth figures do not corroborate with the developments on the ground. The divergences between the high frequency data and GDP growth under the new methodology are blatantly stark.
According to the Crisil report, "Credit growth does not sync with the sharp pick-up in GDP growth now shown for this fiscal. Credit growth is expected to potter around at 12-14% compared with 14.3% as of fiscal 2014-end."
Also Read: Economists say GDP forecast not in sync with tax collection, credit growth
However, with such explosive growth, the tax collections should have kept pace but they are actually lagging behind.
Here are four charts that throw light on India's indirect tax collections till January 2015.
Customs
Customs collections have increased from Rs 1,42,835 crore during April-January 2014 to Rs1,55,248 crore during April-January 2015 registering an increase of 8.7%. This is an achievement of 76.9% of the target fixed for the year 2014-15.
Service Tax
Service Tax collections have increased from Rs 1,22,196 crore in April-January 2014 to Rs 1,32,290 crore during April-January 2015 registering an increase of 8.3%. This is an achievement of 61.3% of the target fixed at 2014-15.
Central Excise
Central Excise collections have increased from Rs 1, 33,207 crore in April-January 2014 to Rs 1,40,284 crore during April-January 2015 registering an increase of 5.3%. This amounts to an achievement of 68.3% of the target fixed for year 2014-15.
Total indirect tax collection
Indirect Tax Revenue (Provisional) collections have increased from Rs 3,98,238 crore in April-January 2014 to Rs 4,27,822 crore during April-January 2015. Thus an increase of 7.4% has been registered during April-January 2015 over the corresponding period in the previous year. This is an achievement of 68.6 % of the target fixed for the fiscal 2014-15.
With two months left in the fiscal and nearly 30% shortfall in the total indirect tax collection, can India mop up the remain tax or will this year be a year of missed targets?
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